000 AXNT20 KNHC 052249 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure center is located over central Alabama. Gentle to moderate winds are prevailing across most of the Gulf. Fresh to moderate easterly winds prevail across the Florida Straights and portions of the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. A trough also extends along the western Yucatan coast from 22N89W to 19N92W. Fair conditions are noted across the basin with seas 2-3 ft. High pressure over north Florida will shift eastward through mid week as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds over the northeast Gulf to increase by Sat, while moderate to fresh winds over the northwest Gulf to diminish. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the northern Colombia coast, S of 12N between 73W-76W. A few training showers are observed between Jamaica and Honduras in the wake of the recently dissipated stationary front. No other significant convection is noted. Fresh winds are occurring north of the Colombia coast in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds also continue across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate prevail throughout the rest of the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the south- central Caribbean. High pressure over north Florida will support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off Colombia tonight and Tue night. Winds and seas will diminish slightly across the basin starting mid week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. This pattern will support fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure continues to extend across the western Atlantic with fair weather conditions and light winds. A cold front extends from 31N45W to 26N52W to 23N60W. The tail-end of the front stalls from 23N60W to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the front from 26N-30N between 33W-49W. Scatterometer data reveals gentle to moderate NW winds behind the cold front, while behind the stationary front fresh to strong NE winds are S of 25N. Seas range 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 7-12 ft in the central Atlantic. High pressure is building eastward along 27N, north of a stalled frontal boundary reaching from 21N65W to the north central Dominican Republic. Seas to 8 ft west of this boundary and south of 22N will subside overnight. By midweek, another low pressure system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area east of 70W and north of 29N. Surface ridging stretches across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high near 23N41W. $$ AReinhart