000
AXNT20 KNHC 051800
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 11N15W to
05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N35W to 00N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-06N between 
06W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure center is located over northern Florida 
allowing for gentle to moderate return flow over most of the 
Gulf except for the Florida Straits and the entrance to the 
Yucatan Channel where winds are fresh. Additionally, a surface 
trough stretches from the 22N95W, through the Bay of Campeche, 
to southern Mexico. Winds W of the Yucatan Peninsula and E of 
the trough are moderate to fresh. Mostly fair weather conditions 
prevail across the basin under the influence of the ridge. Seas 
are 1-3 ft across the basin. 

The high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue
to extend across the basin through the week. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through
Tue night. Fresh return flow can be expected over the western 
Gulf through mid week, then diminishing through late week as the 
high pressure shifts east ahead of a weak cold front moving 
through Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer pass revealed fresh to strong NE-E 
winds over the central and northwestern Caribbean with seas 
of 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted within the 
Windward Passage and 70 nm off the coast of northeast Colombia. 
Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean, with 
seas of 3-5 ft. A few training showers are possible between 
Jamaica and Honduras in the wake of the recently dissipated 
stationary front. 

Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will persist 
in the lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward 
Passage into mid week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean 
through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia 
coast. 


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure over northern Florida is allowing for gentle NW 
becoming NE winds over the northern Bahamas. A cold front enters 
the discussion area near 32N45W stretching southwestward to 
23N60W where the front becomes stationary to the northern coast 
of Hispanola. Scatterometer data reveals gentle to moderate NW 
winds behind the cold front, while behind the stationary front 
fresh to strong NE winds are S of 25N. Scattered showers may 
still be along and ahead of the front north of 25N. Seas in this 
area, N of 20N between 55W-75W are 6-8 ft and 9-12 ft north of 
30N. 

Fresh NE to E winds will persist south of 22N through tonight. 
The cold front will slowly move eastward today. High pressure 
will settle across the region through Tue with more tranquil 
marine conditions forecast. By midweek, another low pressure 
system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area 
east of 70W and north of 29N. 

Farther east, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails over 
the Atlantic east of the cold front. Seas east of 40W and north 
of 30N are 10-12 ft, with heights of 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

$$
Mora