000 AXNT20 KNHC 040906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 12N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-05N between 14W-29W, and from 03N-05N between 33W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-02N between 34W- 40W, from 00N-03N between 41W-47W, and from 03N-05N between 44W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is over Georgia with a ridge axis extending westward to the Texas Panhandle. Fresh to strong NE flow is noted in the southeast Gulf with moderate to fresh winds in the south-central Gulf. Moderate NE-E flow prevails elsewhere east of 90W, with moderate E-SE flow west of 90W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the southeast Gulf in fresh NE swell, and mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere. Isolated showers are possible in the easterly wind flow. The fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf will gradually diminish and subside later this morning. High pressure will continue to extend across the basin through the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from over northern Haiti to south of the Windward Passage to across Jamaica to near the Honduras- Nicaragua border. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near and west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are west of the front as well as across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range west of the front. A surface trough extends from northern Colombia to the Colombia-Panama border beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across portions of central and northern Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Fresh to strong winds are noted just offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere east of the stationary front. Seas are mainly in the 4-6 ft range east of the stationary front, locally to 7 ft northwest of the coast of Colombia. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the trade wind flow. The stationary front is expected to gradually dissipate through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas west of the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the early part of the week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N65W to 20N72W. Scattered showers are possible near and on either side of the front. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted south of 27N and west of the front, with moderate to fresh mainly N-NE winds west of the front. Seas are 8-11 ft in NE swell west of the front to 76W and east of the Bahamas, and 5-8 ft west of 76W. A complex low pressure system north of the area extends a trough from 31N36W to 29N40W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible north of 24N and east of 50W. A small area of fresh to strong winds remains near the trough, north of 29N between 33W-40W. Seas associated with this system of 8-12 ft in NE swell covers the waters north of 22N between 28W-48W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters. A ridge axis extends from 31N51W to 25N50W to 24N28W to 31N19W with light anticyclonic winds under the ridge. Moderate to locally fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N. The cold front in the southwest north Atlantic will slowly move eastward, stalling and gradually dissipating from 22N65W to just northwest of the Mona Passage. Behind the cold front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and moderate seas are expected through this evening. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Windward Passage through Mon. High pressure will settle across the region during the early part of the week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast. $$ Lewitsky