000 AXNT20 KNHC 012325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front for early April extends from south Florida to the coast of E Mexico near 20N97W. Surface observations and earlier ASCAT data indicate that strong north to northeasterly winds are occurring north of the front, and are at gale force intensity over the southwestern Gulf. Wave heights in the central Gulf are up to 12 ft currently, but winds and seas should diminish on Fri. as the cold front clears the area and high pressure shifts eastward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N17W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N17W to 00N23W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 42W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico near Tampico, Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Elsewhere south of the cold front, over the extreme southern Gulf, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. A weak surface trough is present over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Seas south of the cold front are up to 5 ft, highest in the SW Gulf. Scattered showers are present within 60 n mi of the cold front. The cold front will move across the remainder of the area later tonight. High pressure is forecast to shift eastward behind the front and winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish during the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean between the Bermuda High and a 1004 mb low over northern Colombia is producing strong to near-gale force NE to E trades. Seas are up to 12 ft in the area of strongest winds. A small area of strong E trades is also likely occurring just south of Hispaniola with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, NE to E trades are moderate to fresh with seas 5 to 7 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean, but patches of scattered showers are possible east of 72W. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and dissipate across the NW Caribbean through Sat. High pressure over the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N75W to south Florida. NW winds behind the front are moderate to strong, while SW winds ahead of the front are fresh to moderate. Seas are currently 7 to 10 ft behind the front in strong northerly flow. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 26N within about 200 n mi east of the front. The cold front will extend from Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected in association with the cold front. Farther east a cold front extends from 32N35W west-southwestward to 25N46W to 26N56W where it transitions to a stationary front to near Bermuda. SW winds north of 29N ahead of the front are moderate to strong, while NW veering to NE winds are only fresh to moderate behind the front. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring north of 28N east of 50W mainly in NW swell. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 n mi of the front. A large extratropical cyclone is expected to move near our northern border producing strong to near gale E winds and seas near 15 ft north of 27N east of 50W Fri and Sat before diminishing Sun. $$ Landsea/Cangialosi