000 AXNT20 KNHC 011016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the western panhandle of Florida near 30N85W to the coast of NE Mexico near 25N98W. Scatterometer data from earlier this morning shows 25 to 30 kt N to NE winds north of the front. Buoy and ship data show seas to 11 ft in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected to continue north of the cold front today, with frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana, eastward to the panhandle of Florida. Gale- force NW to N winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico late this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Wave heights in the Gulf will be 8 to 13 ft today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ axis continues from 04N17W to 03N22W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 04N between 14W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico near Tampico, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal waters from southern Texas to the western panhandle of Florida. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Scatterometer data this morning shows fresh NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche, associated with a weak surface trough near the western coast of the Yucatan peninsula. This trough is expected to drift westward and weaken today, and winds in the area will become gentle to moderate by the afternoon. The cold front in the northern Gulf will move rapidly SE across the remainder of the Gulf waters through tonight. Strong winds, frequent gusts to gale force, and building seas are expected behind the front today, with gale-force winds likely near the coast of Mexico late this afternoon. Winds will diminish across the region Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia is producing strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer passes over the area earlier this morning showed 25 to 30 kt NE winds, and seas are estimated to be 10 to 13 ft in the area of strongest winds. The scatterometer also showed a small area of strong E to SE winds south of Hispaniola, and fresh to strong winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and dissipate across the NW Caribbean through Sat. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. Wave heights are forecast to build to the range of 8-11 ft in the Yucatan Channel by tonight. Expect fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a pre-frontal trough moving east of the SE U.S. coast have shifted eastward and decreased in intensity. Winds east of Florida are southerly, ahead of a cold front in the northern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front in the central Atlantic reaches from 32N34W to 27N46W to 26N54W, with scattered shower activity noted along the frontal boundary. High pressure is north of the area, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 37N58W. A cold front will move east of northern Florida later today, then extend from Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected in association with the cold front. $$ Mundell