000 AXNT20 KNHC 312328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 01 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A late season and strong cold front has recently moved just offshore the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. It will quickly move across the rest of the Gulf through late Thu. Behind the front, strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the northern and western Gulf, including frequent gusts to gale force offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle tonight through Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience wave heights in the range of 9-13 ft on Thu behind the cold front. This cold front will also bring a relief of the summer-like temperatures in south Florida for this upcoming weekend. Winds will diminish across the region Fri through Sat. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient remains over the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia. This gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to minimal gale-force at times during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu morning. Wave heights are forecast to peak around 11-14 ft during the period of gale- force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 04N19W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W to 01N40W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 17W-20W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W-37W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 39W-42W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 42W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico due a very tight gradient developing behind a strong cold front that has recently entered the far NW Gulf. A Gale Warning is also in effect for frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal waters from southern Texas to the western panhandle of Florida where gusty winds of 40-45 kt are expected. Please, see the Special Feature section for more details. A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters leading to fresh east-southeast winds in the Straits of Florida based latest Ascat data received today. Gentle to moderate return flow is noted elsewhere. Seas are in the range 2-4 ft range across the basin based on latest altimeter data passes. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Feature section for more details. Latest Ascat data showed a large area of 30 kt winds near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, including the waters just south of Hispaniola. An area of NE-E winds of 25 kt is noted near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds over the NW part of the basin. Currently, wave heights range from 9-12 ft in the south- central to SW Caribbean to 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and to 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is seen across the basin with low-level cloud streamers in the lee side of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast: High pressure across the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri morning, with winds pulsing to gale-force at night near the coast of Colombia into early Thu morning. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast winds are possible in the Windward Passage through Thu morning. A relatively strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu afternoon and move across the NW Caribbean Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. Wave heights are forecast to build to the range of 8-10 ft in the Yucatan Channel by Thu night. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Fri, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of northeastern Honduras by Sat morning. Expect fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N39W, and extends to 29N47W and to near 29N49W. Satellite imagery shows mainly overcast low and mid-level clouds along and to within 120 nm southeast and south of the front. Isolated showers are possible within these clouds. Farther E, a dissipating cold front is just east of the Canary Islands. It extends from near 32N11W to 24N19W. Fractured low clouds, with possible isolated showers are along this front. A 1004 mb low pressure system is centered to the north of the Madeira Islands near 36N16W. Latest Ascat data indicated fresh to strong winds in the southern semicircle of the low, roughly north of 29N between 16W-22W. The low in the eastern Atlantic will shift northeastward and weaken through Thu. For the forecast: High pressure will remain north of 32N through Thu morning. A cold front will move east of northern Florida early Thu morning, extend from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri and from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. $$ Aguirre