502 AXNT20 KNHC 291016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south- central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 09N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00S32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 29N83W to 24N94W to 19N95W. Scattered showers prevail along the front. Strong to near-gale force winds are noted over the western Gulf from 20N-25N and west of 96W. Fresh northerly winds prevail elsewhere north of the front, while light to gentle variable winds are noted south of the front across the remainder of the area. The front will extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche this afternoon, then dissipate by tonight. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts near-gale force winds across the south-central Caribbean outside of the gale area, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras and across the approach to the WindWard Passage. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest offshore of northern Colombia, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow. High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through late this morning. Fresh NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is entering the western Atlantic, extending from 32N78W to 30N81W. Scattered showers are noted along and in the vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N44W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 25N with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate NE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. A 1011 mb low is centered over the Canary Islands near 29N17W. The cold front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida this afternoon, stall and weaken over the north waters on tonight, then lift northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the front. $$ ERA