000 AXNT20 KNHC 290544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale-force Winds Warning: NE gale-force winds are present, now, from 11N to 11.5N between 74.5W and 76W. A tight surface pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea, between high pressure to the north of the basin and lower pressure in northern Colombia, will continue to support fresh to near gale-force winds, offshore northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force especially during the overnight and early morning hours, for the next few days. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet. Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale-force Winds Warning: A cold front is passing just to the north of Tallahassee in Florida, to Mexico Beach in Florida, to the Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to 25N96W, and to the coast of Mexico near 21N97.5W. NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, are from 21N to 25N between 96W and 98W. Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, 01N26W to the Equator along 33W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 07N southward between 13W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing just to the north of Tallahassee in Florida, to Mexico Beach in Florida, to the Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to 25N96W, and to the coast of Mexico near 21N97.5W. NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, are from 21N to 25N between 96W and 98W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and areas of rain, are to the north of the line that passes through 27N80W, to 26N86W 22N90W 21N97W. A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, to Lake Okeechobee in south Florida to 26N90W in the Gulf of Mexico. The current cold front, is moving across the NW Gulf of Mexico. The front is extending from 30N85W to 27N92W to 22N97W. Strong to gale-force northerly winds and building seas currently are expected from 20N to 25N and west of 96W. These conditions will dissipate overnight. The front will extend from central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon. The front will become weak and stationary by late on Monday, then it will dissipate on Monday night. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wednesday evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the second cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 20N58W, to 17N68W, to 14N75W, to Costa Rica. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is to the north and northwest of the line that passes through 15N60W 14N70W 12N76W, to the coast of Panama along 79W. A surface trough is along 10N74W in northern Colombia, to the Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong rainshowers, in individual clusters, are in Colombia, to the SE of the surface trough. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Monday. Mainly fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N43W, to 31N52W to 32N58W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N northward between 30W and 70W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 28N45W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 30N between 30W and 65W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is between the Canary Islands and 30N, between 17W and 18W. Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A surface ridge is along 30N65W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast tonight. The front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida on Monday afternoon, stall and weaken in the north waters on Mon night, then move northward on Tuesday. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail to the south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wednesday night. A second cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida from Wednesday night into Thursday, reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Friday. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the front. $$ mt/era