000 AXNT20 KNHC 281050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south- central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through at lead the middle of the week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico today. As the front moves SE across the area, NW winds reaching gale-force are expected to develop from 21N-25N between 96W-98W by 18Z today and continue through Sun night. Seas will range between 8-10 ft with strongest winds. Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on these warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N14W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W to 02S35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic to across the basin supporting moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the area. A plume of low-level moisture shown in Layered Precipitable Water imagery supports areas of dense fog over the north-central and western gulf W of 90W. The fog will dissipate by the morning hours. An area of patchy smoke is analyzed across the Bay of Campeche. These conditions will diminish by tonight. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning following by fresh to strong northerly winds. Winds will reach minimal gale force this afternoon through tonight near the Tampico area, with seas building to 10 ft. The front will extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on Mon afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward Mon night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds across the south-central Caribbean within 90 nm of the Colombia coast. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, across the approach to the WindWard Passage, south of Hispaniola, southwest of Puerto Rico and in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow. High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon, and in the Windward Passage through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge anchored prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 32N33W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 25N with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. The surface ridge will prevail across the area through the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon, stall and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then lift northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu. $$ ERA