000 AXNT20 KNHC 280613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: NE gale-force winds are present, now, from 11N to 11.5N between 74W and 75W. A tight surface pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea, between high pressure to the north of the basin and lower pressure in northern Colombia, will continue to support fresh to near gale- force winds, offshore northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force especially during the overnight and early morning hours, for the next few days. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet. Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 05N18W to 03N20W, and 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to the Equator along 26W, to 01S30W, and to 02S36W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is from 03N southward from 05W eastward, and from 03N northward between the SE coast of Liberia and 10W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 10W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge of high pressure is along 28N/29N, from Florida toward Texas. A cold front is moving into south central Texas. It is forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Low cloud ceilings of 2000 feet or lower cover the coastal plains from Texas to Tallahassee in Florida. Visibilities of 2 miles or less and fog cover the areas that are between Tallahassee and Perry. Fair skies cover the rest of the coastal plains of the Florida west coast. Light rain and drizzle have been observed off and on during the last few hours at the MacDill Air Force Base in the Tampa metropolitan area. Fresh to strong winds will persist near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight into the early morning hours due to local effects. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning following by fresh to strong northerly winds. The wind speeds will reach minimal gale-force Sun afternoon through Sun night near the Tampico area, with seas building up to 11 feet. The front will extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on Mon afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then move northward Mon night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through Puerto Rico to 15N74W, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans the entire Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 10N74W in northern Colombia, to Panama about 45 nm to the NW of the Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in individual clusters, are in Colombia within 250 nm to the SSE of the surface trough, between 73W and the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere south of 18N and E of 80W. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon, and in the Windward Passage through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level trough is on top of a surface trough that is along 63W/64W from 22N to 30N. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 160 nm to the NNW of the Canary Islands, and about 120 nm to the SW of the Madeira Archipelago. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N northward from 22W eastward. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 33N34W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the Canary Islands low pressure center and the 63W/64W surface trough. A surface ridge is along 30N67W to Florida from 28N to 29N between 81W and 82W. A surface ridge will prevail through the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast Sun night, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon, stall and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then move northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night. A second cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu. $$ mt/era