000 AXNT20 KNHC 271003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are present, near the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea, between high pressure to the north of the area and lower pressure that is in northern Colombia, will support pulsing winds to gale-force, during the overnight into the early morning hours, for the next couple of days. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 13 feet. Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 08N12W to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W, to 00N26W to 01S30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is south of 05N southward between 23W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends along 29N from the western Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire basin. Scatterometer data shows fresh SE winds in the west-central Gulf from 24N to 27N between 92W and 95W, and fresh to strong E winds in the Straits of Florida north of Cuba between 81W and 83W. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central part of the Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Isolated shower activity is located near the coast of Mexico from 22N to 25N west of 95W. Fresh to strong winds north of the Yucatan peninsula will shift westward into the south-central Gulf later today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning, reach from the NE Gulf to the Bay of Campeche on Monday, become stationary Tuesday morning, then lift northward as a weak warm front Tue night. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh easterly trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from eastern Panama to northern Colombia. Scatterometer data showed a large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, with winds to 35 kt near the coast of northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft in the south- central Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the region, with isolated showers embedded in the trade wind flow. High pressure across the west-central Atlantic will continue through Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist over central Caribbean through Wednesday night, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail south of 18N through Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from 31N57W to 22N59W, with isolated showers observed near the trough axis. A 1009 mb low pressure center is about 170 nm NNW of the Canary Islands, and about 90 nm SW of the Madeira Archipelago. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 29N northward and 22W eastward. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 33N39W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the Canary Islands low pressure center and the 32N57W 21N59W surface trough. A surface ridge is along 29N, across north-central Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic, and gentle to moderate winds in the vicinity of the ridge axis. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 10 ft east of the Windward Islands, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. The ridge along 29N will prevail through the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sunday night, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Monday afternoon, stall and weaken on Tuesday, then lift northward Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with the highest winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next week. $$ Mundell