000 AXNT20 KNHC 261507 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A deepening 1008 mb low pressure is just north of the Canary Islands near 31N17W. This low is expected to move across the Meteo-France High Seas area of Madeira today into tonight. A gale warning is in effect through 2100 UTC today, mainly for frequent gusts. Expect seas of 10-13 ft this weekend north of 27N and east of 25W, due to this system.For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/_bulletin/grandlarge/ _metarea2 ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to 03S30W to 00N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 17W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stalling and weak cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana off the south-central coast of Louisiana near 29N91W to the northwest Gulf near 25.5N94.5W. The southern portion of the front has dissipated to a remnant trough, continuing from 25.5N94.5W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Areas of rain are possible on either side of the front and trough within 60 nm. A ridge of high pressure reaches from the Southwest North Atlantic to across the Florida Panhandle. Moderate to locally fresh return flow is noted east of the front and trough, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Mainly moderate winds are noted west of the boundaries along with 4-6 ft seas. The weak frontal boundary over the western Gulf will dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop north of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and shift westward to the south-central Gulf on Sat while expanding in coverage. A new cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, reach from the NE Gulf to the Bay of Campeche on Mon, become stationary Tue morning, then lift northward as a weak warm front on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient is across the western and central portions of the basin with fresh to strong winds noted in the Gulf of Honduras, through the approach to the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, with fresh to near gale force winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean, the strongest northwest of the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere. Seas are 8-12 ft in the central Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 6-9 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Typical isolated to widely scattered showers on the trade wind flow will be possible this afternoon. High pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic will continue through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with the highest winds to near gale-force expected near the coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage this weekend to include the rest of the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A 1027 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda extends ridging across the western Atlantic, with gentle winds north of 26N between 56W-72W, and moderate to locally fresh trades near the Greater Antilles, across the Bahamas, and offshore of northern Florida. Seas of 4-6 ft and fair weather conditions prevail across most of the western Atlantic, except for a few isolated showers east of the central Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N57W to 23N60W, with isolated showers associated with the feature. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted east of the trough, north of 20N between 53W-57W, associated with a mid-upper level trough. A 1034 mb high pressure centered near 25N38W extends ridging southward across the open central tropical Atlantic waters. Mainly fresh to locally strong trades prevail across this area per recent scatterometer data, with seas of 7-11 ft. Ridging will change little through the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night, reach from near 31N73W to northern Florida early on Mon, then become stationary and weaken along 30N from Mon through Tue night. The frontal remnants may form into a trough offshore the northeast Florida coast on Mon, and lift northward as a developing low pressure to along the southeastern U.S. coast through late Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with the highest winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next week. $$ Lewitsky