000 AXNT20 KNHC 242246 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea gale warning: The Bermuda High will build across the western Atlantic through the remainder of the week and prevail through the weekend. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and climatological low pressure over Colombia will produce fresh to strong winds across the south Central Caribbean beginning Thu, with winds pulsing to gale force each night from Thu night through at least Sun night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09.5N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted east of 13W between 0.5S and 04.5N. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1004 mb low is centered in SW Texas near 30.5N100W with a weak surface trough in the N Gulf along about 28N from 85W to the Texas coastal waters. North of the trough, strong E to E-SE winds to 30 kt continue across the Louisiana coastal waters. South of the trough between 85W and 94W fresh to strong S to SE winds prevail. Seas over the central and N Gulf are 5-8 ft, with 3-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 27.5N and east of 87W in association with the N Gulf trough, while scattered showers are noted north of 27N west of 87W. The surface trough over the northern Gulf will lift northward this evening and tonight. A high pressure ridge building over the E Gulf and persistent low pressure near the NE coast of Mexico will support fresh to strong SE winds over the western and central Gulf through the end of the week. A cold front will move into the W Gulf on Thu where it will stall and weaken. The remnant boundary will then shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri into Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the special features section above for more on pulsing gale force winds off the coast of Colombia starting Thu night. Low pressure over NE Mexico and SW Texas is contributing toward strong SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon, and moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere west of 80W. East of 80W E trades are generally gentle to moderate, except for fresh just north of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 3-5 ft, except 5-8 ft over the Gulf of Honduras and north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon as stable conditions aloft prevail across all but the southern Caribbean. The Bermuda High will build over the western Atlantic through the end of the week and through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean, with winds pusling to gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia each night from Thu night through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally moderate to fresh E trades prevail across the tropical N Atlantic east of 55W, south of ridging from a 1034 mb Bermuda- Azores High centered near 36N44W. A surface trough, the remnants of an old cold front, extends from 31N28W to 26N35W. The pressure gradient north of this old boundary is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds as well scattered showers within 90 nmi of the surface trough. Seas are currently 4-6 ft across the region and 6-8 ft along the surface trough. A deep layered upper-level trough across the central Atlantic along about 60W is moving very slowly eastward and inducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection north of 23N between 52W and 60W. The Bermuda High will strengthen from Thu through Sat, and lead to strengthening NE to E trades east of 65W. The Bermuda High will build westward across the northern waters through the end of the week and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the southern waters this weekend as the ridge builds and prevails. $$ Stripling