000 AXNT20 KNHC 241716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea gale warning: The Bermuda High will build across the western Atlantic through the week and prevail through the weekend. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and climatological low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south Central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force each night from Thu night through at least Sun night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted east of 10W as well as south of 02N west of 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 28W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1003 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 23N96W with weak surface troughs in the NW Gulf from 28N94W to 27N97W and in the NE Gulf from 30N85W to 27N91W this morning. North of these troughs up to the Mississippi-Louisiana border, strong E winds were observed by scatterometer. Elsewhere SE winds of moderate to fresh prevail. Seas over the central and N Gulf are 5-7 ft, with 3-5 ft occurring elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 27N east of 90W in association with the NE Gulf trough, while scattered showers are noted north of 27N west of 90W. The surface troughs over the northern Gulf will lift northward today. A high pressure ridge building over the E Gulf and persistent low pressure near the coast of Mexico will support fresh to strong SE winds over the western and central Gulf through the end of the week. A cold front will move into the W Gulf on Thu where it will stall and weaken. The remnant boundary will then shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri into Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the special features section above for more on pulsing gale force winds off the coast of Colombia starting Thu night. Low pressure over the SW Gulf of Mexico is contributing toward strong SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras this morning, as observed by scatterometer. Elsewhere E trades are generally gentle to moderate, except for fresh just north of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 3-5 ft, except 5-7 ft over the Gulf of Honduras and north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occurring this morning, though there are some scattered showers just north of Colombia and Venezuela. The Bermuda High will build over the western Atlantic through the end of the week and the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean, with gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia each night from Thu night through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally moderate to fresh E trades prevail across the tropical N Atlantic, south of ridging from a 1035 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered near 37N44W. A surface trough, the remnants of an old cold front, extends from 30N28W to 26N44W. NE to E winds are enhanced to strong as well as producing scattered showers within 60 nmi of the surface trough. Seas are currently 4-6 ft generally and 6-8 ft along the surface trough. An upper-level trough is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 50W and 60W. East of 65W, as the Bermuda High strengthens the NE to E trades will increase to strong from Thu through Sat. For the forecast west of 65W, the Bermuda High will build westward across the northern waters through the end of the week and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the southern waters this weekend as the ridge builds and prevails. $$ Landsea