000 AXNT20 KNHC 222202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N18W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from 00N25W to 01S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-05N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO A ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley through the southeast Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends into the ridge from 1013 mb low pressure along the Carolina coast through South Florida to the far southeast Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the eastern Gulf. Moderate SE to S winds are noted across the western Gulf between the ridge and a complex 1000 mb low pressure area moving into the Southern Plains. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the southwest Gulf, and 5 to 7 ft in the northwest Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. Light smoke is evident across the far western Gulf due to agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge building over the eastern Gulf and persistent low pressure near the coast of Mexico will support increasing SE winds and building seas over the western and central Gulf through midweek. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Thu, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Fri into this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The end of a stationary front extends across central Cuba toward Cayman Brac. The southern end of a surface ridge extends into the northwest Caribbean behind the front. Light to gentle winds are evident across the northwest Caribbean, except for moderate eastern winds funneling along the coast of Honduras. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds persist along the coast of northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, with 5 to 7 ft seas currently. This is between broad ridging across the western Atlantic and lower pressure and higher terrain along the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident. A few showers are active in the trade wind flow across the Windward Islands and the far southwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to build over the western Atlantic through late this week. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean, and near gale- force winds could pulse near the coast of Colombia Thu night into this weekend. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper level trough is moving off the southeast coast of the U.S. and is supporting a well defined 1013 mb low pressure off the Carolina coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along an associated cold front from 31N73W to central Cuba. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 1530 UTC indicated fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of northeast Florida, part of a low level jet of strong NE winds funneling between the low pressure and the coast. Mostly gentle to moderate westerly winds south of the low pressure and west of the cold front. Seas likely 8 to 12 ft off the northeast coast of Florida and 5 to 7 ft in the open waters west of 55W. Broad ridging dominates remainder of the Atlantic south of 31N farther east. Fresh northerly winds off the coast of Africa, with moderate trade winds elsewhere, and seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast for the area west of 65W, rough seas in NE swell will persist north of 29N and west of 77W through tonight as a low pressure trough lingers off the Florida coast. Elsewhere, the weakening cold front from 31N73W across the central Bahamas to central Cuba will dissipate tonight. A high pressure ridge will build westward across area north of 27N through midweek and persist into this weekend. $$ Christensen