000
AXNT20 KNHC 221752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near 
11N15W to 03N20W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 
00N38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
00N-07N between 00W-20W. 

GULF OF MEXICO

High pressure ridging dominates the northern Gulf waters. Water 
vapor imagery continues to show dry air across most of the basin, 
which is inhibiting showers. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail
across the waters adjacent to the west coast of Florida, with 
moderate to fresh S-SE winds over the remainder of the basin. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range over the northern Gulf, with calm seas 
elsewhere.

The ridge building over the NE Gulf will support increasing SE 
winds and building seas over the western Gulf later today, then 
over the central Gulf through midweek ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Thu, and
it may stall from the north-central Gulf to the SW Gulf by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Atlantic across eastern Cuba,
into the NW Caribbean. Winds are gentle to moderate out of the 
NE. No significant weather is associated with this feature. Fresh 
to strong trades prevail over the south central Caribbean, with 
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range 
over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central 
and east Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. 

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through 
midweek, maintaining fresh to strong winds off Colombia over the 
south-central Caribbean. Expect increasing winds and building seas
over the NW Caribbean from mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1200 UTC: Gale force winds have moved north of the 
discussion area.

As of 1500 UTC: the low pressure centers previously located off 
northeast Florida and near 31N76W have merged and moved north of 
the discussion area. A cold front continues to extend from the new
1014 mb low off the SE U.S coast. The cold front reaches to 
eastern Cuba, where the boundary becomes stationary. W winds 
behind the front are gentle, with moderate S winds, as well as 
scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front, north of 
25N. Seas are 8-12 ft in this region. 

For the forecast, a weak trough will linger off the coast of 
northern Florida through tonight, with rough seas in NE swell west
of 77W. A cold front that extends from near 31N74W across the 
central Bahamas to central Cuba will weaken today and dissipate by
tonight. A high pressure ridge will build westward across the 
northern waters during the middle and latter portions of this 
week.

An east to west oriented stationary front just north of the 
discussion area is allowing for fresh to strong winds along 32 N 
between 45W-55W, noted in a scatterometer pass from earlier this 
morning. Otherwise, Ridging dominates the remainder of the 
Atlantic allowing for fair weather and moderate return flow with 
seas 6-8 ft.

$$
Mora