000 AXNT20 KNHC 221001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the eastern United States and 1014 mb low pressure off the E coast of N Florida is inducing strong to near gale force NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force to the north of 30N. Seas to 10 ft are occurring in this area. The frequent gusts to gale force are expected to weaken this morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N15W to 05N18W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05S-08N between 00W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is building across the northern Gulf waters. Water vapor imagery continues to show dry air across most of the basin, which is inhibiting showers. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the northeast Gulf, with seas in the 2-3 ft range elsewhere. High pressure building over the northeast Gulf will support increased E to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf today, then over the central Gulf Tue and Wed as a cold front moves through Texas. The front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu and stall from the north central Gulf coast to the southwest Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central and east Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through mid week, allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia, and increasing winds and building seas over northwest Caribbean from mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A complex surface pattern is over the SW N Atlantic waters. Low pressure is centered off the coast of northern Florida. An occluded front extends from this low to a second low near 31N76W, with a cold front extending from this low to central Cuba. Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms are noted N of 25N between 68W- 76W. As discussed in the Special Features section above, the strong to gale force winds are north of 30.5N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere west of 73W, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere east of 73W. Outside of the area of gale force winds gusts, seas are in the 6-8 ft over the open waters of the western Atlantic. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will dissipate today as the low shifts N of the area. A ridge will build westward into the region along roughly 27N through mid week, then will lift north of the area Thu and Fri. $$ AL