000 AXNT20 KNHC 211740 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean gale warning...The pressure gradient between high pressure across the NE United States and low pressure centered off the coast of NE Florida is supporting strong to near gale winds off the east coast of Florida, north of 29N. There will be frequent gusts to gale force over this area through this afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 01S30W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 04N, east of 08W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 00N to 07N between 10W and 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits across the eastern Gulf. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the NE Gulf and calm elsewhere. The cold front from the Straits of Florida to the central Gulf will weaken as it moves southward today. High pressure will build behind the front over the northeast Gulf through early next week, supporting increased E to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will approach the Texas coast by mid week, then move into the northwest Gulf by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Yucatan peninsula to eastern Honduras. Fresh NE winds are north of the trough, becoming gentle to moderate in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong trades prevail over the south central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through mid week, allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia, and increasing winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean from mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on the gale warning off the coast of NE Florida. A complex surface pattern is over the SW North Atlantic waters. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to a 1014 mb low pressure over the N Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along this boundary. A second area of low pressure is located near Jacksonville, FL with a cold front extending southward to the Florida Straits. Strong to near gale winds are noted north of 30N and west of 75W. Otherwise, winds are moderate to fresh in this region. Seas north of 27N range from 6- 12 ft west of 50W, with the largest seas near the SE U.S. coast. A weak ridge extends from high pressure near 35N37W into the central Atlantic waters. Light to gentle winds are within this ridge, as well as over the tropical Atlantic waters north of 15N and east of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the tropical waters east of the Leeward Islands. Seas range from 6-7 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front and low will dissipate today while the cold front will move farther east and dissipate through Mon as associated low pressure lifts north of the area through Tue. A ridge will build westward into the region along roughly 27N through mid week, then will lift north of the area through Thu. $$ Mora