207 AXNT20 KNHC 201000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Mar 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean gale...A cold front has moved into the NW waters, while high pressure is building across the NE United States. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the front will support strong to near gale winds off the east coast of Florida, north of 27N. There will be frequent gusts to gale force over this area starting this morning and continuing through Sun afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 00N to 06N between 14W and 21W, from 02N to 05N between 21W and 31W, and from 02N to 06N between 31W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the northern Gulf from the Florida panhandle to the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except reaching 6 ft over the SE Gulf. The cold front over the northeast Gulf will weaken as it moves across the eastern and central Gulf through through late Sun. High pressure will build over the northeast Gulf early next week, supporting increased E to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the far northwest Gulf late Tue or Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends over the far NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. The stationary front across the far NW Caribbean will dissipate through late today. Large northerly swell east of the Leeward Islands will subside through today. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for a developing gale off the coast of northern Florida. A stationary front extends from 32N69W to western Cuba. A new cold front has entered the NW waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted west of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail between the stationary front and the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are within 300 nm east of the stationary front north of 27N. A surface ridge extends from 32N51W to the central Bahamas. Gentle winds are within the ridge. south of the ridge, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 32N32W to 20N50W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 26N within 300 nm west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will move into the Straits of Florida by early Sun as the stationary front dissipates. The cold front will move farther east and dissipate through Mon as low pressure developing along the front lifts north of the area. $$ AL