000 AXNT20 KNHC 181805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... High pressure building southward behind a cold front making its way across the Gulf of Mexico will briefly increase winds along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz to minimal gale-force this afternoon. NW winds are expected to peak at 30-35 kt this afternoon, then remain NW to N at 20-30 kt until midnight. Seas will increase to 9-11 ft during the brief period of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N32W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted about 260 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 19W, and along the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 20W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for more details on the Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning. A cold front passes through SE across the FL Panhandle near 30N86W, into the west-central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. Scattered moderate convection is evident north of 26N and scattered showers south of 26N. Dry conditions prevail with fresh to strong northwest winds behind the front. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front extending from Panama City southwest to near 28N87W. The cold front over the Florida Panhandle will continue moving SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche this afternoon, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Fri. Gale-force NW winds are expected near the Veracruz coast of Mexico this afternoon. Expect strong thunderstorms along the front N of 26N today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected in the NE Gulf Sat night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through the Lesser Antilles and weakens from 14N63W to 15N69W. Scattered showers are are noted along the weakening front and within 45 nm south of the front. Earlier scatterometer data indicated a surface trough in the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea. The trough extends from the southeast coast of Nicaragua to the northern coast of Panama. This trough is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection along the coast of Nicaragua southeast to 09N81W. The cold front will drift southward and continue to weaken through tonight. Large northerly swell will subside across Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the central Caribbean through Fri morning, with near gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night, then meander across the NW Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N34W and extends across the Lesser Antilles south of Guadalupe near 15N61W into the NW Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and isolated rain showers are within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, associated with high pressure north of 32N, covers the Atlantic Ocean north and northwest of the cold front. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 32N64W. A cold front trails from the low center to 30N67W, and then continues as a stationary front to near the coast of South Carolina, near 33N79W. Isolated shower activity is noted along the frontal boundary. The cold front in the central Atlantic will meander and weaken through Fri. Large northerly swell will subside across the waters E of 72W through tonight. A cold front will move east of northern Florida late tonight, extend from near 31N71W to the Straits of Florida Fri evening, then become stationary on Sat. An area of low pressure forming along the stationary front will intensify northerly winds east of northern Florida Sat evening through Sun night, with gale conditions possible. $$ Torres