000 AXNT20 KNHC 181022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... High pressure building southward behind a cold front making its way across the Gulf of Mexico will briefly increase winds along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz to minimal gale-force this afternoon. NW winds are expected to reach 25-30 kt later this morning, peak at 30-35 kt this afternoon, then remain NW to N at 20-30 kt until midnight. Seas will increase to 9-11 ft during the brief period of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N18W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02N33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 13W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through SE Louisiana near 29N91W, into the west-central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 21N98W. Scattered showers are evident along the frontal boundary and up to 90 nm east of the front. The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche this afternoon, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Friday. A brief period of gale-force NW winds are expected near the Veracruz coast of Mexico later today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected in the NE Gulf Saturday night through Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through the Lesser Antilles 16N62W and extends eastward into the NE Caribbean Sea to south of the Mona Passage near 17N69W. Scattered showers are occurring along the frontal boundary and within 45 nm south of the front. Earlier scatterometer data indicated a surface trough in the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea. The trough extends from the southeast coast of Nicaragua to the northern coast of Panama. This trough is enhancing shower activity in southern Central America, including Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, during the past 12 to 24 hours. The cold front across the NE Caribbean will drift southward and weaken today. Large northerly swell will subside across Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the central Caribbean through Fri morning, with near gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel Friday night, then meander across the NW Caribbean through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N33W and extends across the Lesser Antilles near 16N62W into the NW Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and isolated rain showers are within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, associated with high pressure north of 32N, covers the Atlantic Ocean north and northwest of the cold front. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N68W. A cold front trails from the low center to 31N71W, and then eastward to 31N79W near the coasts of South Carolina and Georgia. Isolated shower activity is noted along the frontal boundary. The cold front will drift SE, then stall and weaken today. Large northerly swell associated with the front will subside across the waters east of 72W today. A cold front, currently in the Gulf of Mexico, will move east of northern Florida late tonight, extend from near 31N71W to the Straits of Florida Friday evening, then become stationary on Sat. An area of low pressure forming along the stationary front on Saturday will intensify northerly winds east of northern Florida Sunday and Sunday night, with gale conditions possible in the coastal waters of northern Florida. $$ Mundell