000 AXNT20 KNHC 171015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N17W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to 00N37W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed east of 13W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 17W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A west-to-east pressure gradient from low pressure over Mexico to high pressure east of the Bahamas is inducing moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the Gulf of Mexico. The exception are the fresh to strong E to SE winds just north of the Yucatan peninsula. Peak seas are 5 to 6 ft over the central and western Gulf. A few showers are developing in the NW Gulf in advance of a strong cold front over Texas. Areas of dense fog are possible this morning as well. No significant deep convection or showers are occurring elsewhere over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow will prevail across the basin through Wed morning ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf later today. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Fri. Near gale-force winds are likely near Veracruz, roughly south of 21N west of the front, by Thu. The strong winds will end by Thu night and the cold front will exit the SE Gulf on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-10 ft in the area of strongest winds Thu afternoon and Thu evening then subside Thu night as the winds diminish. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong north-south pressure gradient between high pressure east of the Bahamas and a 1008 mb low over Colombia is forcing three separate areas of strong winds: just north of Colombia, the Gulf of Honduras, and the Windward Passage. Scatterometer winds this evening did not cover the area just north of Colombia that should have the strongest winds, but coverage farther west suggests that gale-force winds were not occurring. Peak seas are likely 8-11 ft north of Colombia and 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Widely scattered showers are present south of 16N across the southern Caribbean. Near gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia each night through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the Windward Passage tonight. SE winds will increase across the NW Caribbean through tonight, ahead of a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall and weaken near the Yucatan Channel Fri night and Sat. Large northerly swell will affect the Tropical North Atlantic waters through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward across the central Atlantic from 32N38W to 19N61W to 20N70W, just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer winds indicated that the NW winds behind the front had diminished north of 30N. A very large area of 12 ft seas remains present for most of our Atlantic waters north of 22N and east of 65W due to long period NW swell. Peak seas observed were 23 ft near 30N45W from an altimeter pass. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 30N38W to 22N46W. The cold front and the trough have scattered showers within 60 to 90 nm of their respective boundaries. The cold front along 20N will push southward across the Greater Antilles later today. Large northerly swell will affect the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands through Thu. A cold front will move east of northern Florida Thu night, extend from near 31N71W to the Straits of Florida Fri night, then become stationary on Sat. An area of low pressure forming along the stationary front will intensify northerly winds east of northern Florida Sun and Sun night, with gale conditions possible. Farther east, the large NW swell will propagate across the Atlantic High Seas forecast waters by Thu and gradually diminish afterwards. Aside from some fresh to locally strong NE winds occurring Fri and Sat near 28N45W, south of a developing high pressure, the trade winds across the basin will remain moderate to fresh. $$ Mundell