000 AXNT20 KNHC 170534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Minimal gale-force winds should occur across the Veracruz region in the wake of the front by Thu. The gale-force winds will end by Thu night and the cold front will exit the SE Gulf on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-10 ft in and near the area of gale-force winds late Thu afternoon and early Thu evening before subsiding as the winds diminish. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 01N36W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed east of 10W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 12W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. A west-to-east pressure gradient from low pressure over Mexico to high pressure east of the Bahamas is inducing generally moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the Gulf of Mexico. The exception are the fresh to strong E to SE winds just north of Yucatan. Peak seas are 5 to 6 ft over the central and W Gulf. No significant deep convection ore showers are occurring this evening over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow will prevail across the basin through Wed morning ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Fri. A brief period of gale-force NW winds is expected near the Veracruz coast of Mexico Thu afternoon. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong north-south pressure gradient between high pressure east of the Bahamas and a 1008 mb low over Colombia is forcing three separate areas of strong to near gale winds: just north of Colombia, the Gulf of Honduras, and the Windward Passage. Scatterometer winds this evening did not cover the area just north of Colombia that should have the strongest winds, but coverage farther west suggests that gale-force winds were not occurring. Peak seas are likely 8-10 ft north of Colombia and 5-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Scattered showers are present south of 16N, across the S Caribbean. Near gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the Windward Passage tonight. SE winds will increase across the NW Caribbean through Wed night ahead of a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall and weaken near the Yucatan Channel Fri night and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward across the central Atlantic from 32N39W to 20N70W, just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Scatterometer winds from around 23 UTC indicated that the NW winds behind the front had dropped to strong breeze north of 30N. However, a very large area of 12 ft seas remains present for most of our Atlantic waters north of 22N and east of 65W due to long period NW swell. Peak seas observed were 23 ft near 30N45W from an altimeter pass. There also is a surface trough extending southwestward from 27N42W to 16N60W, just east of the Leeward Islands. Both the cold front and the trough have scattered showers within 60 nmi of these boundaries. The frontal boundary east of the Bahamas will push southward into the Greater Antilles through Wed, to extend from 21N50W to south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola near 17N67W by Wed night. Large northerly swell will affect the waters north and east of the Virgin Islands through Thu. A cold front will move east of northern Florida Thu night, and extend from 31N71W to the Straits of Florida Fri night. The front will become stationary on Sat. Low pressure forming along the stationary front will strengthen NE winds across the waters east of Florida Sun and Sun night. Farther east, the large NW swell will propagate across all of our Atlantic High Seas waters by Thu and gradually diminish afterwards. Aside from some strong NE winds occurring Fri and Sat near 28N45W south of a developing high, the NE to E trades across the basin will remain gentle to fresh. $$ Landsea