000 AXNT20 KNHC 152313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move eastward in the central N Atlantic through Tue. Gale-force W winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N border to 29N between 48W and 60W through Tue morning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue night. Caribbean Gale Warning...Pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area combined with the low over Colombia will give way to gale-force winds north of Colombia tonight and Tues night. Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds Wed night through Fri night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring south of 05N and east of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front continues to linger off the Texas and Mexico coast extending from 30N94W to 24N97W. Weak surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the area, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered over the coast near 37N77W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SE winds over the Bay of Campeche between 90W-94W, while gentle to moderate SE winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3-5 ft across the Gulf with calm seas in the NE Gulf. The stationary front is expected to linger over the NW Gulf before weakening as it moves farther inland this evening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A cold front is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the Gulf waters through Thu. The front will exit the southeast Gulf by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the northern portion of the basin, affecting the waters in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Surface ridging is allowing for fair weather conditions to prevail over the basin. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the entire basin, with the highest seas in the south- central Caribbean. Pulses of gale-force winds will occur within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. From Wed night until the end of the week, expect fresh to strong winds in this region. Meanwhile, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Tue night. By Tue, fresh to strong trades will dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W and will continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning along our High Seas northern border. A cold front entered the discussion area in the western Atlantic, extending from 32N59W to 27N70W to 31N79W. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail north of the front, while light to gentle variable winds are noted south of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N47W to 22N54W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. Surface ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic supporting gentle to moderate trades with seas around 5 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas in NW swell will continue follow the cold front over the west Atlantic, through tonight. The front will extend along 22N-23N by Tue morning, reaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico Tue night into Wed. The next cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of this front through Fri. Northerly swell is expected to impact the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed. $$ ERA