000 AXNT20 KNHC 150437 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N border to 29N between 48W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-27 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to 01N41W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring south of 05N east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N between 20W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico from 29N95W off of the upper Texas coast to 23N98W in NE Mexico. Scattered showers are present within 30 nmi of the front north of 26N. Weak ridging prevails across the N Gulf. N to NE winds behind the front are moderate to fresh, E winds just north of Yucatan are fresh to strong, while the remainder of the Gulf has gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Seas peak at 4-5 ft in the W Gulf and just north of Yucatan. The frontal boundary is expected to linger along the Texas coast through Mon before weakening as it lifts farther inland by Mon evening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A new cold front is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the Gulf waters through Thu. The front will exit the southeast Gulf by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure of 1021 mb is centered just northeast of the Bahamas near 28N74W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong NE trades just north of Colombia, as well as fresh to strong NE winds in both the Windward and Mona Passages. Elsewhere with moderate to fresh NE to E trades prevail. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night through Fri night. By Tue, fresh to strong trades will dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas northern border. High pressure of 1021 mb is centered just northeast of the Bahamas near 28N74W. A surface trough extends from 28N52W to 21N61W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring west of the surface trough. Elsewhere across the tropical N Atlantic winds are gentle to moderate. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 45W to 50W, in association with the surface trough. Seas are peaking at 6-8 ft along the 31N border between 45W and 55W, mainly due to NW swell. Elsewhere seas are generally 4-6 ft. For the region west of 65W, a cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas in NW swell will follow this front, affecting mainly the NE forecast waters Mon and Mon night. The next cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of this front through Fri. $$ Landsea