000 AXNT20 KNHC 142217 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale- force W winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N border to 29N between 42W and 70W Mon afternoon through Tue morning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-26 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 02N22W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to 01N41W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 03S-04N between 20W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf, gentle to moderate winds over the SE Gulf, with moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the western Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. A frontal boundary is expected to linger along the Texas coast through Mon before lifting farther inland by Mon evening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the Gulf waters Wed and Thu. The front will exit the southeast Gulf by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered north of the area near 27N75W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong NE winds just north of Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through at least Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night through Fri night. By Tue, the aerial extent of the trades will increase and dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas northern border. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered north of the area near 27N75W. A dissipating cold front extends from 32N58W to 28N68W. A surface trough extends from 26N52W to 19N62W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere west of the surface trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over much of the open waters north of 20N and west of 60W. The exception is north of 29N between 50W and 70W where seas are in the 6-8 ft range in NW swell. Farther east, another area of high pressure is centered near 28N39W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 20N and east of 50W, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. South of 20N, gentle to moderate tradewinds, and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will push southward across the northern forecast waters tonight and stall over the SE waters near Puerto Rico on Mon. A second and stronger reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas in NW swell will follow the reinforcing front, affecting mainly the NE waters Mon and Mon night. Another cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of this third front. $$ AL