000 AXNT20 KNHC 132200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic gale warning...A cold front associated with deepening low pressure over the Atlantic waters will move south of 30N on Mon. A large area of gale force winds will extends well southward of the low pressure area. These gale force winds are expected to reach along 31N between 50W and 65W in association with this front on Mon. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 01S-07N between 02W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N- 04N between 20W-30W and from 03N-08N between 42W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is over the northeast Gulf. Surface ridging extends westward across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center, where seas are in the 1-2 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SE Gulf, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh SE return flow is over the western Gulf, with seas of 4-6 ft. Mid and upper- level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, leading to subsidence and relatively dry air. Southeast return flow over the western Gulf will slowly expand across the rest of the basin the remainder of the weekend, becoming fresh to locally strong in the NW and west- central Gulf tonight into Sun. A cold front will stall near the coast of Texas on Sun and move back inland by Sun night. Southerly return flow will increase again across the Gulf region Tue night and Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the basin by Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted just off the coast of Colombia and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean west of 70W. Gentle trade winds prevail east of 70W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the western half of the Caribbean, and 4 to 5 ft over the eastern Caribbean. A mid-level ridge prevails over the western portion of the basin, with subsidence and relatively dry air. Some cloudiness and rain showers are noted from the southern Windward Islands extending westward to the ABC Islands. Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as a high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge of high pressure is across the west-central Atlantic from a 1021 mb high near 29N51W to a 1025 mb high pressure near 29N77W. A surface trough extends NE of Puerto Rico from 25N60W to 18.5N64.5W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are located within 180 nm to the north and northwest of the trough axis. Gentle anticyclonic winds are seen north of 25.5N along the ridge axis. Moderate NE winds cover the area of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms extend NE from the northern portion of the aforementioned surface trough from 22N- 26N between 53W- 62W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from 32N33W to 26.5N40W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the discussion waters east of 60W. Seas are 5-7 ft across most of the Atlantic, except 7-8 ft to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. For the forecast west of 65W, winds and seas will diminish across the SW N Atlantic through Sun as a high pressure in the west-central Atlantic weakens. A surface trough located north of Puerto Rico will drift eastward during the next couple days. A cold front will move southward between Bermuda and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Gale force winds are expected along 31N between 50W and 65W in association with this front on Mon. $$ AL