000
AXNT20 KNHC 131025 RRA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the coast of Africa from 05N00W 
to 05N10W, then offshore to 05N17W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues 
from 03N26W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is noted south of 05N east of 13W. Scattered moderate convection 
is along the ITCZ between 24W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the 
northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across 
the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the NE Gulf, 
and 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

The ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift 
eastward and weaken through tonight. Southeast return flow over 
the western Gulf will slowly expand across the rest of the basin 
this weekend, becoming fresh to strong in the NW Gulf tonight. 
Winds will diminish into early next week, as a cold front stalls 
near the coast of Texas Sun through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

A ridge of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic. 
Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Windward Passage as well 
as just off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds 
prevail across the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the western 
half of the Caribbean, except to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. 
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the eastern Caribbean.

Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as a 
high pressure ridge north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses 
of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage 
and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong NE 
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night through 
Wed night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A ridge of high pressure is across the west-central Atlantic. A 
cold front extends from 32N37W to 24N50W. A surface trough is 
analyzed north-northeast of the Virgin Islands. 

Scatterometer data within the past 12 hours showed strong NE 
winds centered near 23N62W, in association with the surface 
trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are evident elsewhere from 
21N to 24N between 61W and 72W. Seas across this area of higher 
winds are estimated to be 9 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail north of 28N across the central and western Atlantic 
Ocean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 20N. Seas are 
in the 7-9 ft range over the open waters south of 28N and west 
of 55W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range north of 28N and west of 
the front. East of the front and north of 20N, seas are in the 5 
to 8 ft range.  

Winds and seas will diminish west of 60W through Sun as the high 
pressure ridge in the west-central Atlantic weakens. A surface 
trough north of Puerto Rico will drift eastward during the next 
couple of days. A cold front will move southward between Bermuda 
and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing 
cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. 

$$
Mundell