000
AXNT20 KNHC 111722
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Locally heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:

A stationary front extends to the northern portions of 
Hispaniola. There are currently some showers noted in NW 
Hispaniola near the tail-end of the front with most convective 
activity north of the island. Abundant low level moisture 
associated with the front will continue to be transported across 
much of northern and interior portions of Hispaniola before the 
front begins to drift NW later today through Fri. However, 
scattered to numerous showers embedded in the strong NE winds 
associated with the front could impact these areas today. 
Locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds are expected with some 
of these showers and will maintain the potential for flash 
flooding and river flooding, as well as landslides across higher 
elevations. Flood warnings and watches have been announced for 
several provinces, by the Weather Bureau of the Dominican 
Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of 
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N16W to 01N30W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted along and within 200 nm on either side of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge continues to extend across the Gulf of Mexico. 
This is allowing for quiescent conditions across the basin. 
Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds prevail across the 
Gulf of Mexico with seas 3-6 ft in the eastern Gulf and 5-8 ft 
in the western Gulf.

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to 
shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong E winds over 
the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits into Fri. Southeast 
return flow across the western Gulf will gradually expand across 
the entire Gulf through the weekend. The next cold front is 
expected to enter the northwest Gulf Sun and stall there through 
Mon. 

CARIBBEAN SEA

See the Special Features section for more information concerning 
the heavy rainfall over Hispaniola. 

Fresh to strong NE winds, induced by the pressure gradient 
between the high pressure across the W Atlantic and a frontal 
boundary, is noted across much of the NW Caribbean east of 86W 
and through the Windward Passage. Seas as high as 9-10 ft are 
seen in
the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Outside of 
convective activity occurring in Hispaniola, passing showers can 
be seen embedded in the tradewind flow across the Greater and 
Lesser Antilles. Seas are 5-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 
6-9 ft across the central and NW basin. 

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to 
support fresh to strong winds across the northwest and 
south-central Caribbean. This will diminish slightly by Sat, but 
pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist through the 
Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and off Colombia into 
early next week. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of 
the Leeward and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater 
through Fri night in mixed NW swell and E wind waves. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the central and western 
Atlantic from a 1023 low near 31N46W to the northern Hispaniola 
coast near 20N72W. Showers and thunderstorms are noted along and 
within 100 nm of the front. North of the frontal boundary, fresh 
to strong north-northeast winds are noted between 56W-76W. South 
of the front, winds are light to gentle. North of the Turks and 
Caicos Islands, seas are up to 13 ft, with 9-12 ft seas across 
the area with fresh to strong winds. 

High pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic. A trough is 
located from 28N34W to 23N36W. Off the western African coast, 
east-northeast winds are generally moderate to fresh. 

A stationary front extending to the NW coast of the Dominican 
Republic is expected to drift northward and meander through 
tonight before dissipating early Fri. Strong high pressure north 
of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large 
seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 28N today will continue 
through Fri evening south of 27N. Another cold front will move 
southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida 
Sat night through Sun, sinking southward to along roughly 25N 
Mon night. 

$$
AReinhart