194 AXNT20 KNHC 101747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure shifting slowly across the western Atlantic is aiding in forcing NE to E gale-force winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 76W. Wave heights across this area range from 10 to 13 feet based on recent altimeter data. These gale-force winds conditions have diminished to 25-30 ft late this morning, but will return again tonight through early Thursday morning. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Locally heavy rain in Hispaniola: A stationary front continues over Hispaniola and has started to dissipate over the Caribbean Sea. Moisture associated with the front will remain in place the rest of today and Thu, diminishing by Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds persist to the north of the front and will continue to transport patches of low level moisture with embedded showers across Hispaniola. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds could be associated with the strongest showers. Warnings and watches have been issued for several provinces by the Weather Service in Dominican Republic. Please read the forecasts and bulletins that are issued by your local meteorological agency for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07.5N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 22W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the W Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico producing a broad anticyclonic wind flow across the region. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a dissipating stationary front across the Caribbean is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits, and is expected to persist through Thu night. Recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of moderate to fresh SE winds across much of the western half of the Gulf waters. This return flow will gradually expand across the entire Gulf Thu through Fri and persist through the weekend. The next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sun and stall there through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from Hispaniola to just south of Jamaica to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. Recent scatterometer data show strong winds of 25-30 kt in the lee of Cuba and E of the Isle of Youth to about 19N. These winds are advecting patches of moisture, with embedded showers over eastern Cuba where locally heavy rain and gusty winds may occur. This morning, Holguin located in eastern Cuba, reported a shower, with a wind gust of 25 kt. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight, with seas of 8-10 ft. This system will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, and across the Windward passage through Thu night. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater for the next several days in mixed NW swell and E wind waves. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow dominates the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, particularly E of the above mentioned frontal boundary. These patches of moisture will produce isolated to scattered passing showers. A surface trough extends from the Colombian/Panamanian low located near 10N75W southwest into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Heavy rainfall potential persist across parts of Colombia during the next 24 hours. Please read the forecasts and bulletins that are issued by your local meteorological agency for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N45W to 26N53W, where it becomes stationary then continues SW to Hispaniola. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with the frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the frontal boundary, centered on a 1034 mb high located near 33N72W. The pressure gradient between the high and the stationary frontal boundary is resulting in fresh to strong NE winds from 28N southward to the frontal boundary and W of 65W. Similar wind speeds are noted in the wake of the front S of 31N and E of 65W. Seas of 8-12 ft are affecting the waters S of 27N and E of the Bahamas. East of the front, a 1030 mb high is centered just S of the Azores near 34N27W and is inducing fresh tradewinds across the eastern Atlantic south of 23N, where seas are 7-10 ft. The stationary is expected to drift northward and meander through Thu. Strong high pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 27N W of 65W through much of this week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night through Sun. $$ GR