000 AXNT20 KNHC 100001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building off the Carolinas across the western Atlantic and low pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the south-central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds off the coast of northwest Colombia will increase back to gale force this evening and persist into Wed morning. Similar conditions are forecast Wed night into early Thu. Seas will build to 10-14 ft around sunrise each morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient offshore of Morocco will support N-NE gale force winds in the Agadir high seas area through 00 UTC Wed. Please refer to the latest Meteo- France High Seas Forecast at the website www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/_bulletin/grandlarge_metarea2 for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola to south of Jamaica to the northern coast of Honduras. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken over the next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist north of the front into mid-week over the northwest Caribbean, and through the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Embedded low clouds and showers along and behind the front will stream southwestward across central portions of the mountainous interior of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening, to produce periods of numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. This rainfall is capable of producing areas of river and stream flooding and landslides across higher elevations of Hispaniola. The tail end of the front is expected to focus similar conditions across northern Honduras, where locally heavy rainfall in showers and thunderstorms is likely through early Wed. Please read forecasts and bulletins that are issued by your local meteorological agency for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-05N between 17W-28W, and from 00N-07N between 35W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure is located northeast of the basin offshore of the Carolinas with it extending west-southwest across the Mississippi Valley. A surface trough is analyzed west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 19N93W. Scattered showers are noted with this trough. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the southeast Gulf, even near gale in the Straits of Florida, with mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 7-10 ft in the southeast Gulf, highest in the Straits of Florida, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. The high pressure extending across the southeastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits through mid week. Winds and seas will diminish later in the week as the ridge slides eastward. Looking ahead, southeast return flow will increase over the northeast Gulf late Sat, then diminish Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea offshore of the northwest Colombia coast, and for the potential for Heavy Rainfall across Hispaniola and Honduras. A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola to south of Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras. Strong NE winds are spilling into the northwest Caribbean in the lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Channel, and also through the Windward Passage to well south of Jamaica. These winds are the result of a strong high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades are seen elsewhere. Transverse high clouds are noted over the southern Caribbean due to moderate to strong westerly winds aloft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is seen elsewhere. Seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will remain 8 ft or greater through the end of the week in mixed N swell and E wind waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong high pressure of 1035 mb centered southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina near 33N74W extends west-southwest across southern Georgia. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 32N47W to 22N63W where it continues as a stationary front to across central Hispaniola. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE-E flow south of 27N, strongest east of the central Bahamas and in the Straits of Florida, with gentle to moderate NE flow north of 27N. Seas are 8-13 ft in fresh NE swell south of 27N, and 5-8 ft north of 27N, higher in the Straits of Florida. A wide-band of low and middle clouds with scattered showers is associated with the front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are observed behind the frontal boundary. This cloudiness, with isolated showers, is affecting the northwest Bahamas, south Florida and the Florida Keys, where breezy conditions prevail. The front is expected to drift northward and meander through Thu. Strong high pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 27N through much of this week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night and Sun. East of the front, a 1029 mb high pressure is located near 34N29W. EArlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong trade winds between the southern periphery of the high and the ITCZ. Seas are 8-11 ft in a mix of NW swell and easterly tradewind swell south of 25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, and 5-8 ft north of there. $$ Lewitsky