000 AXNT20 KNHC 091727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure building off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. across the western Atlantic has increased the pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea supporting strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia this morning as noted per recent scatterometer pass. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south- central Caribbean through midweek. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight, with seas building to 12 or 13 ft. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: A stalling front extends from central Hispaniola across Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken over the next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist N of the front into midweek over the NW Caribbean, and through the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Embedded low clouds and showers along and behind the front will stream southwestward across central portions of the mountainous interior of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening, to produce periods of numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. This rainfall is capable of producing areas of river and stream flooding and landslides across higher elevations of Hispaniola. The tail end of the front is expected to focus similar conditions across northern Honduras, where locally heavy rainfall in showers and thunderstorms is likely through early Wednesday. Please, read forecasts and bulletins that are issued by your local meteorological agency, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N30W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-06N between 13W-16W, within about 30 nm N of a line from 04N16N to 04N20W to 03N28W, and from 01S-02N between 44W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure of 1035 mb centered just off South Carolina extends southward across Florida, the Florida Keys and the Gulf of Mexico, producing fresh to strong easterly winds across the Gulf waters, particularly S of 27N and E of 87W. These winds are also affecting the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds area noted over the NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate E winds over the SW part of the basin. Seas are currently in the 6 to 9 ft range within the area of the strongest winds, except to 10 ft in the Straits of Florida. The strong high pressure will shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits through late Wed. As the ridge slides eastward Thu and Fri, fresh SE return flow will develop across much of the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stalling front extends from central Hispaniola across Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras. A wide-band of clouds with embedded showers and possible thunderstorms is associated with the front. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Strong NE winds are spilling into the NW Caribbean in the lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Channel, and also through the Windward Passage to well south of Jamaica. These winds are the result of a strong high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea. Transverse high clouds are noted over the southern Caribbean due to moderate to strong westerly winds aloft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is seen elsewhere. Seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will remain 8 ft or greater for the next several days in mixed N swell and E wind waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A west Atlantic cold front passes through 31N50W and extends to north sections of Hispaniola. A strong 1035 mb high pressure located just off South Carolina follows the front and is producing strong NE winds from 27N to the front, with seas of 12-13 ft E of the Bahamas. A wide-band of low and middle clouds with scattered showers is associated with the front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are observed behind the frontal boundary. This cloudiness, with isolated showers, is affecting the NW Bahamas, south Florida and the Florida Keys, where breezy conditions prevail. The front is expected to drift northward and meander through Thu. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 27N and W of 65W through much of this week. E of the front, a 1031 mb high pressure is located near 32N33W. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong trade winds between the southern periphery of the high and the ITCZ. Seas are 8-10 ft in a mix of NW swell and easterly tradewind swell S of 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. $$ GR