000 AXNT20 KNHC 091100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure building off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. across the western Atlantic has increased the pressure gradient across the Caribbean, and induced NE-E gale-force winds within 90 nm of the coast of NW Colombia tonight. Wave heights there are in the 10-12 ft range. Winds will diminish below gale- force this morning, and then increase again tonight to gale-force. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: The frontal boundary that extends from the N coast of Hispaniola southwestward across Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras will stall today through this evening before weakening and drifting NW tonight through Thu. Strong high pressure north of the front is inducing strong NE winds across the regional Atlantic between the front and 27N and across much of the NW Caribbean. Embedded low clouds and showers along and behind the front will stream southwestward across central portions of the mountainous interior of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening, to produce periods of numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. This rainfall is capable of producing areas of river and stream flooding and landslides across higher elevations of Hispaniola. The tail end of the front is expected to focus similar conditions across northern Honduras, where locally heavy rainfall in showers and thunderstorms is likely through early Wednesday. Please, read forecasts and bulletins that are issued by your local meteorological agency, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 01S47W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N southward to 01S between 12W and the mouth of the Amazon Basin along 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1034 mb high pressure centered ove coastal Georgia and South Carolina extends southward across the Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, producing anticyclonic wind spanning the basin. Strong easterly winds prevail across the SE and south central portions of the Gulf south of 27N and east of 89W, where seas are currently 6 to 9 ft except to 10 ft in the Straits of Florida. Strong high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits through late Wed as a weakening cold front stalls across the NW Caribbean. As the ridge slides eastward Thu and Fri, fresh SE return flow will develop across much of the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes diagonally through central Hispaniola to Jamaica then to the NE coast of Honduras. Strong NE winds are spilling into the NW Caribbean in the lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Channel, and also through the Windward Passage to well south of Jamaica. Clusters of scattered to numerous showers have moved from central Hispaniola across SW Haiti and into the adjacent Caribbean waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue along the frontal boundary from the coastal waters SW of Jamaica to NE portions of Honduras. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 70W eastward. A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Numerous strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 75W and 78W. A robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is helping to generate numerous strong precipitation in parts of western Colombia. Periods of heavy rains are expected in western Colombia through early Tuesday. It is likely that this rain may cause localized flooding. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological agency for more details. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through midweek, as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. A stalling front extends from central Hispaniola across Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken over the next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist N of the front into midweek over the NW Caribbean, and through the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will remain 8 ft or greater for the next several days in mixed N swell and E wind waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A west Atlantic cold front passes through 31N50W to north sections of Hispaniola. 1034 mb high pressure across coastal Georgia and South Carolina extends south and southeastward behind the front and is producing strong NE winds from 27N to the front, where high seas have built to 8-16 ft. Broken to overcast low and middle clouds with scattered showers extend to 180 nm behind the front between Hispaniola and 31N. A 1030 mb high pressure center near 34N33W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 25N northward to beyond 31N to the east of the cold front. Strong tradewinds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic east of 50W where seas are 8-12 ft in a mix of NW swell and easterly tradewind swell. The front is expected to stall roughly from 22N65W to the NE coast of the Dominican Republic this afternoon, then drift NW and meander tonight through Thu. Strong high pressure building N of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 27N through much of this week. $$ Stripling