000 AXNT20 KNHC 071732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N60w to a 1013 mb low near 27N75W. A cold front extends from this low to near 19N87W. The cold front will move SE through Mon, while the low slides NE along the front and deepens across the western Atlantic through tonight. High pressure north of the region will act to increase northerly winds behind the front to gale force NW of the low pres late this afternoon through tonight from 29N-31N between 64W-71W, where seas will build to 10-14 ft. The low and gale force winds will lift N of the area by early Mon afternoon. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold front that will move SE across the western Atlantic the next few days will increase the pressure gradient across the south central Caribbean tonight through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force Mon night, and then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds. For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 02N-08N between 11W-21W. Similar convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03S-02N between 30W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure building over the lower Mississippi Valley is currently supporting fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern Gulf E of 88W and moderate NE winds over the western Gulf. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring over the southeastern Gulf. The strong winds over the eastern Gulf are expected to become E to NE and continue into Wednesday night. Southeast return flow will develop across the northern Gulf Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is over central Cuba and extends over the Caribbean near 22N82W to 19N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of this front. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are north of the front, while light to gentle winds are occurring over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are occurring over the central Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the Colombia coast. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Wind will increase across the basin tonight as high pressure builds north of the region. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. The cold front will move SE into Tuesday, when it will reach from Haiti to Jamaica. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N65W to 1013 mb low pressure near 27N75W. A cold front extends from this low to central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of these fronts east of 73W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are north of the fronts, where seas are from 7-10 ft. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of 55W. Seas are 7 to 13 ft with a component of longer period NW swell. Strong N to NE winds behind the front will prevail into Monday night as the low moves NE and out of the area. Gales will develop on the west side of the low this afternoon and continue on Monday. By Tuesday, the front will slow down and weaken from 22N65W to the Haiti Dominican Republic border. Strong high pressure will build north of the front and support strong NE winds south of 27N through Wednesday. $$ Latto