000 AXNT20 KNHC 070603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure currently over the SE Gulf of Mexico will deepen and move rapidly to the east across Florida into the western Atlantic by tonight. Strong northerly winds following the front will increase to gale force by Sun night over Atlantic waters southwest of Bermuda, from 27N-31N between 65W-70W, with 8 to 12 ft seas. For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 11N15W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 00N30W 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 11W-21W. Similar convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03S-01N between 26W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough continues to support a cold front that extends from the southern tip of Florida to a 1012 mb low near 25N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula where the front transitions to stationary. Strong high pressure building northwest of the front over the lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast is currently supporting NE fresh to strong winds over the eastern half of the Gulf and fresh N winds west of 90W. Recent radar imagery noted scattered showers ahead of the front in the Straits of Florida. Seas behind the front range between 4 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 6 ft, reaching 7 ft off the coast of Tampico, Mexico. For the forecast, the low will shift E-SE across the Straits of Florida tonight, dragging the front into the NW Caribbean. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the Yucatan Channel and portions of the far NW Caribbean associated with a cold front moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is noted ahead of the front stretching from the western tip of Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A surface high is observed in the western Caribbean near 11N82W, supporting gentle anticyclonic winds and calm seas. Elsewhere across the basin, fresh trades prevail, with seas to 7 ft farther south close the South American coast. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight through Sun. The front will stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low pressure center of 1012 mb is currently off the SE coast of Florida. A stationary front continues NE from this low to another low pressure center, located near 27N70W, to 32N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over the northern Bahamas, ahead of the front. Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is observed near a surface trough extending from 30N59W to 26N69W. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 27N, behind the front that is moving off the coast of Florida with seas from 6-9 ft. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of 52W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft with a component of longer period NW swell. For the forecast for the area west of 65W, the low pressure system will move from SE Florida toBermuda tonight through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near- gale force winds. Winds will reach gale force west of the low Sun night. The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed. $$ Mora