952 AXNT20 KNHC 062357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure currently over the SE Gulf of Mexico will deepen and move rapidly to the east across Florida into the western Atlantic by tonight. Strong northerly winds following the front will increase to gale force by Sun night over Atlantic waters southwest of Bermuda, from 27N-31N between 65W- 70W, with 8 to 12 ft seas. For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N24W to the coast of Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N-09N between 07W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough continue to support a cold front that extends from Fort Myers, Florida to a 1013 mb low near 25N85W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are ahead of the front, including the straits of Florida and the Yucatan channel. Strong high pressure builing behind the front is currently supporting NE fresh winds over the eastern half of the gulf and fresh to strong N winds west of 90W, with the strongest winds occurring between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico. Seas behind the front range between 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the low will shift E-SE across the Gulf through this evening, dragging the front across the Gulf. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are over the Yucatan channel and portions of the far NW Caribbean associated with a cold front moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are also across Hispaniola associated with a lingering surface trough. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist across the eastern and central Caribbean, with locally stronger winds and seas to 7 ft farther south close the South American coast. Gentle breezes 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight through Sun. The front will stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are observed N of a stationary front that reaches from 31N63W to a low pressure near 29N78W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas to 7 ft are north of the front. South of this front, scattered showers and tstms are moving from central Florida to the northern Bahamas ahead of a cold front that will emerge from the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N53W to the southern Bahamas with no convection associated with it. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds east of 65W, with fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W. Seas are 7 to 12 ft with a component of longer period NW swell. For the forecast for the area west of 65W, a stationary front from 25N65W to eastern Cuba will weaken tonight. A low pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda tonight through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds. Winds will reach gale force west of the low Sun night. The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed. $$ Ramos