000 AXNT20 KNHC 061159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09N13.5W to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil near 02N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 40W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf, as a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate, which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area. A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low south of Louisiana and continues along southwest along the Texas coast into Mexico. Developing low pressure system across the NW Gulf will deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through this evening. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front from eastern Cuba to the central Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate today. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 25N65W to eastern Cuba and will drift N and weaken today. Winds north of the front will shift easterly today, and increase north of 27N late. A developing low pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed. $$ TORRES/AL