870 AXNT20 KNHC 031757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 01200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed off the coast of Georgia a with a cold front extending southwestward across northern Florida into the northeast Gulf of Mexico near the Big Bend of Florida. Gale force SW-W winds have begun north of 30N ahead of the cold front. The low will shift northeastward today, dragging the front across the region. These gale force winds will shift east with the progression of the low and front through mid-week, remaining mainly north of 29N. Gale-force winds should diminish by Friday morning. Seas will build as the winds increase and the low deepens, peaking at around 16 ft along 31N tonight. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the west coast of Africa near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N30W to near the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N- 07N between 13W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is also within 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front enters the Gulf from Cedar Key, Florida near 29N83W and extends across the central Gulf and into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Broad high pressure is northwest of the front from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast and across eastern Mexico. A scatterometer pass from 1500 UTC revealed fresh N winds behind the front, becoming moderate to gentle west of 90W. Significant precipitation has dissipated along the boundary. Seas in the Bay of Campeche range from 6-8 ft with 3-5 ft seas across the rest of the basin. The cold front will reach from the Straits of Florida to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula by early Thu. The eastern portion of the front will move into the northwest Caribbean Fri, as the western portion moves northward as warm front across the southwest Gulf, associated with developing low pressure near Tampico, Mexico. Looking ahead, the low pressure area will deepen and move rapidly toward the northeast Gulf Sat, dragging a cold front across the Gulf through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level riding covering the Caribbean sea from 70W westward and deep layer dry air revealed in water vapor imagery is allowing for mostly fair weather conditions to prevail across the basin. Fresh trades are in the eastern and central Caribbean, with moderate trades in the western Caribbean, west of 80W. Strong winds may still be present within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia in the wake of last nights gale-force conditions. A surface trough extends from 19N80W to 13N84W near the coast of Nicaragua. No significant weather is associated with this feature. Seas to 13 ft are still present in the south- central Caribbean, with 4-7 ft elsewhere. Ridging north of the area over the western Atlantic is shifting southeastward today ahead of a cold front moving off the east coast of Florida. This will support fresh to strong trade winds over the southern Caribbean, but gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Thu, stall briefly Fri from central Cuba to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, then lift north Sat. Meanwhile, a trough will move westward through the Windward Islands Thu, and into the central Caribbean by Sat. Looking ahead, another front may move into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, and stall from the Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for details on the ongoing Gale Warning east of northern Florida. A warm front extends eastward from the 1011 mb low centered near 31N78W to 30N70W where it continues SE as a stationary front 27N61W. Satellite imagery is showing scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the low and west of 70W. The low will move northeast today, with a trailing cold front reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by tonight. The front will reach from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Thu, then stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba by Fri. Looking ahead, the front may lift north over the Bahamas and Florida early Sat as low pressure moves through the Gulf of Mexico. The low may move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night into Sun, possibly accompanied by winds to gale force, and dragging a cold front across the region through Sun night. Further east, a cold front extending from 32N48W connects to the tail end of the stationary front near 27N61W. NW moderate to fresh winds are behind the boundary while SE moderate flow is east of the boundary, with seas north of 30N ranging from 10-15 ft. A 1025 mb high near 27N30W is allowing for moderate to gentle return flow across the Atlantic waters north of 20N. Trade winds become moderate to fresh south of 20N. Seas for the remainder of the basin range from 6-9 ft. $$ Mora