000 AXNT20 KNHC 031030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near Jacksonville, Florida with a stationary front extending westward across northern Florida to another area of low pressure in the northeast Gulf of Mexico near the Big Bend of Florida. The low will shift northeastward today, dragging a cold front across the region. Strong winds will develop around the low this morning, increasing to gale-force later today, mainly in the SW flow ahead of the front and low. These gale force winds will shift east with the progression of the low and front through mid-week, remaining mainly north of 29N. Gale-force winds should diminish by Thu afternoon or evening. Seas will build as the winds increase and the low deepens, peaking at around 16 ft along 31N tonight. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will support strong to gale force winds north of the coast of Colombia early this morning. Seas will peak around 12 ft this morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure near the Big Bend of Florida, across the central Gulf and into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Broad high pressure is northwest of the front from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast and across eastern Mexico. Strong winds near Veracruz, Mexico continue to diminish as the cold front shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of 25N and east of the low and front. Seas up to 10 ft are in the western Bay of Campeche, with 6-8 ft seas elsewhere west of the front. Seas are 2-5 ft east of the front. Widely scattered showers are occurring along the cold front. Stratiform clouds and showers are occurring west of the front. A trough is analyzed across the western Yucatan Peninsula ahead of the cold front. The low pressure system and cold front will push eastward across northern Florida today, dragging the cold front across the eastern Gulf, then exit the basin early Thu. High pressure will prevail across the area Thu and Fri. Another low pressure system will develop over the Gulf waters during the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning north of the coast of Colombia early this morning. High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia supports fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, around the gale force winds described above, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas are 8-12 ft in the south-central and southwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Thu. A cold front will sink into the northwest Caribbean Thu stalling and weakening along 18N Fri. Another cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean this weekend with fresh to strong NE winds in its wake from the Windward Passage westward. Winds and seas are expected to increase across the eastern Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning east of northern Florida. A stationary front is analyzed from 28N69W to 30N76W, where it continues as a warm front into a 1012 mb low pressure just NE of Jacksonville, Florida near 30N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of the frontal boundary. A ridge of high pressure is along 26N with light and variable winds from 24N to 28N, except for moderate return flow west of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are south of 24N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft south of 30N with building seas north of 30N. Further east, a cold front extends from 32N53W to 27N63W to 28N69W. An area of 1022 mb is centered near 27N30W. Fresh winds are occurring north of 29N between 50W-65W near the cold front, along with 8-12 ft seas in northerly swell. A remnant trough is SE of the cold front from 31N50W to 26N58W. Typical moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 20N. The low pressure system centered near 30N80W will strengthen and track NE through Thu night, pushing a strong cold front across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. High pressure will prevail over the area Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to affect the SW N Atlantic waters during the weekend, possibly producing gale force winds over northern waters. $$ Mundell