000 AXNT20 KNHC 030423 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: 1015 mb low pressure is analyzed northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29.5N80W with a stationary front extending westward across central Florida near/along the I-4 corridor to another area of low pressure in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The low will shift to just north of the area overnight into early Wed, dragging a cold front across the basin. Strong winds will develop around the low during the next several hours, increasing to gale force just after sunrise Wed both ahead of and behind the front and low. These gale force winds will shift east with the progression of the low and front through mid-week, remaining mainly north of 29N. Gale force winds should diminish by Thu evening. Seas will build as the winds increase and the low deepens, peaking around 16 ft along 31N Wed night. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will support strong to gale force winds north of the coast of Colombia tonight until around sunrise Wed. Seas will peak around 12 ft late tonight into early Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 18W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-06N between 33W-39W, and from 03N-07N between 46W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed across central Florida to the Gulf coast near Tampa Bay to 1013 mb low pressure south of the western Florida Panhandle near 29N87W. A cold front extends from the low to across the central Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche to Mexico just east of the Chivela Pass. High pressure continues to build in the wake of the front from the lower Mississippi Valley to along the Texas coast and across eastern Mexico. Gale force winds that were occurring offshore of near Veracruz, Mexico have diminished to fresh to strong. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of 25N and east of the low and front. Seas up to 12 ft in the western Bay of Campeche remain from the earlier gale force winds with 6-11 ft seas elsewhere west of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft east of the front, except 3-5 ft north of 25N to 86W. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along and north of the stationary front. Cold, dense air and stratiform precipitation is occurring west of the cold front. A trough is analyzed from the south-central Gulf near 24N87W to across the western Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are occurring near the trough. The low pressure system and cold front will push eastward across northern Florida, with the front reaching across the eastern Gulf through Wed, exiting the basin by early Thu. High pressure will prevail across the area Thu and Fri. Another low pressure system will develop over the Gulf waters during the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning north of the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia supports fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, around the gale force winds described above, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas are 8-11 ft in the south-central and southwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through the next several days. A cold front will sink into the northwest Caribbean Thu stalling and weakening along 18N Fri. Another cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean this weekend with fresh to strong NE winds in its wake from the Windward Passage westward. Seas will build slightly in the Tropical N Atlantic Wed through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning east of northern Florida. A stationary front is analyzed from 28N65W to 29N77W where it continues as a warm front into 1015 mb low pressure just northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 28N and west of 65W. Fresh to strong winds were noted by recent scatterometer data north of 28N and west of 77W. A ridge of high pressure extends along 26N with light and variable winds from 24N to 28N, except moderate return flow west of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are south of 24N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft south of 30N with building seas north of 30N. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N55W to 28N65W. High pressure of 1021 mb is south of the front near 25N56W with another 1021 mb high pressure area near 29N40W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring north of 29N between 50W-65W near the cold front, along with 8-12 ft seas in northerly swell. A dissipating stationary front is south of the eastern high from 32N30W to 25N46W with a remnant trough from there to 19N49W. Typical moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 20N. The low pressure system centered near 29N80W will strengthen and track NE through Thu night, pushing a strong cold front across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. High pressure will prevail over the area Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to affect the SW N Atlantic waters during the weekend, possibly producing gale force winds over northern waters. $$ Lewitsky