000 AXNT20 KNHC 272350 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds continue this evening within about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are presently ranging from 10 to 16 ft. Winds will continue to pulse to gale-force for the next few nights, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian low and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night, when seas are forecast to reach 15- 18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits coastal Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N- 06.5N between 05W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N between 26W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft over the western and southern Gulf and up to 6 ft in the Florida Straits. Dense marine fog restricting visibilities earlier today has burned off across all but the Texas coastal waters where it remains patchy. Marine fog in these nearshore Gulf waters will likely continue through early next week, Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will continue across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf on Tue, then stall and weaken to a trough on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of a middle to upper-level anticyclone covering the central and western Caribbean. ASCAT data from 1418 UTC revealed fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern parts of the basin, including the Windward Passage. Widely scattered, fast-moving showers are embedded in the trade wind flow, moving across central portions of the basin between 12N and 16N, and were approaching the Yucatan coastal waters. Seas are likely 7-12 ft across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh ESE trades are over the western Caribbean, with seas ranging from 3-6 ft High pressure north of the region in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds across central Caribbean through Wed, with winds reaching gale force each night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Large seas will remain over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends into the area near 32N43W and continues SW to 27N50W where the boundary transitions to a shearline. Winds north of the front and shearline are N to NE at 15-25 kt. Scatterometer data from this morning also revealed locally strong NE winds located north of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. East of the front, surface ridging prevails with gentle to moderate winds occurring north of 24N, becoming fresh south of 24N over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally strong winds are over the waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 7-10 ft seas across the waters north of Puerto Rico to 25N. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas are mostly in the 8-10 ft range. High pressure will remain over the area into early next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the waters south of 22N through Mon night. A cold front will move over the far northwest waters Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N69W to 28N73W, become stationary to south-central Florida on Tue, then weaken through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas. $$ Stripling