000 AXNT20 KNHC 270602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An active gale-force wind event is happening, right now, in the coastal waters of Colombia. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, from 10N to 14N between 74W and 79W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind conditions will be lasting for the next 48 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS high seas forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to 02N27W 02N32W and 01N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward between 05W and 21W, and from 01N to 04N between 27W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are also from 17N southward between 30W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from Ocala in Florida toward the lower Texas Gulf coast. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Areas of low clouds and patchy dense fog are in the coastal plains and coastal waters, from Texas to Florida. A stationary front is inland in Texas, from 60 nm to 90 nm to the northwest and west of the Texas Gulf coast. Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will continue in the Gulf of Mexico into early next week. A weak cold front will reach the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, then stall and weaken to a trough on Wednesday. Areas of dense fog are likely to form in the NW and north central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation center that is just off the coast of northern Colombia near 11.5N75W. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind flow, to nearly everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. A trough enters the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, passing through 12N58W into NE Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 66W eastward. Water vapor imagery confirms the upper level trough. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows a trough that passes through 13N58W, into the NE and the north central sections of Venezuela. Anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, with a NW Cuba anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS model for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, that is around a trough, that extends from N Colombia to N Nicaragua. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is 150 nm to the SE of the surface trough, from 04N to 06N between 74W and 77W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 02N to 09N between 74W and 79W, in Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 13N southward from 72W westward. Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere, from 10N to 18N between 68W and 81W. High pressure to the north of the region, in combination with low pressure in northern Colombia, will continue to support strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday, with winds reaching gale-force each night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean Passages through Monday. Large seas will remain in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to the east of the Windward Islands, through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N56W to 30N/31N along 66W, beyond 32N72W. A cold front passes through 38N43W to 32N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the SSE of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 26N northward between 52W and 76W. A surface ridge extends from a 1034 mb high pressure center that is near 35N24W, to 31N34W 28N50W and 28N73W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 19N northward from 60W eastward, and elsewhere from Greater Antilles northward between 60W and 75W. High pressure will prevail in the area into early next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the waters that are to the south of 22N through Monday night. A cold front will move into the far northwest waters on Monday afternoon. The cold front will reach from near 31N69W to 28N73W, become stationary to south central Florida on Tuesday, then weaken through Wednesday night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas. $$ mt/dm