000 AXNT20 KNHC 242319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force NE to E winds will continue to pulse within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia for the next several nights, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian/Panamanian low and high pressure over the western Atlantic. Seas are forecast to reach 12-15 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 0.5N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N east of 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 29N84W, with a weak ridge axis that extends across portions of the northern and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail near the high pressure, while moderate SE to S winds are found in the SW Gulf and near the coasts of southern Texas and northern Mexico. Recent buoy observations indicate seas are generally 2-4 ft within the moderate flow, and 2 ft or less elsewhere across the central and eastern Gulf. Some areas of fog linger along the central and southern portions of the Texas coast. Weak surface ridging building across the N Gulf will persist through Fri. Gentle to moderate SE winds should prevail across most of the Gulf Sat and Sun. Sea fog is possible over NW Gulf by late Thu and persisting through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air persists across the basin with limited shower activity noted in recent radar and satellite data. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the central Caribbean waters. Near gale- force winds are found within about 120 n mi of the northern coast of Colombia, where seas range from 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades continue across the remaining forecast waters. Earlier altimeter data showed 6-9 ft seas in the offshore waters south of Hispaniola. Wave heights are lower over the NW Caribbean, generally 2-4 ft, within the gentle to moderate trades. The Bermuda High north of the region will support fresh to strong E trades across the central and E Caribbean through at least Mon night, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early morning hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward Passage tonight, persisting through Mon. Fresh to strong E trades should develop in the Gulf of Honduras nightly beginning Sat night. N swell with E wind waves are producing combined seas of up to 10 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic waters. These conditions will prevail through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends through 32N53W to 27N66W to 26N74W, where it becomes stationary and extends across the NW Bahamas to near West Palm Beach, FL. Some isolated showers linger this evening near the front between South Florida and Grand Bahama. Elsewhere, showers and isolated convection continue within 90 nm of the cold front east of 60W. Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring ahead of the front over the forecast waters north of 29N, with moderate to fresh winds poleward of the front east of 65W. Seas are 8-12 ft near the front over the far northern waters east of 65W. Over the SW Atlantic offshore waters, winds are mainly gentle with locally moderate winds located near the front to the south of a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 32N71W. Farther east, a 1034 mb high pressure is centered near 35N29W. A cold front extends through 32N15W to 28N22W to 25N31W, where it transitions to a shear line and continues to 23N51W. A recent scatterometer pass shows fresh to strong winds poleward of the front, with moderate to fresh winds north of the shear line. Large northerly swell associated with this system is producing a broad area of 12+ ft seas over the eastern Atlantic waters north of 23N. In fact, a recent altimeter pass depicts an area of 12-15 ft seas along a swath from near 32N35W to 23N37W. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are noted ahead of the front over the eastern Atlantic, with fresh trades prevailing across the central tropical Atlantic waters. Northerly swell combined with easterly wind waves are producing combined seas of up to 10 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The SW Atlantic frontal boundary should dissipate tonight. A new, weak cold front will move from west to east across the waters north of 28N Thu and Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the second front will support fresh to strong E winds across the waters south of 22N late Fri through at least Mon night. N swell combined with E wind waves in the area will produce combined seas of about 8-9 ft on Sun and Mon. $$ B Reinhart