000 AXNT20 KNHC 210441 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure found over northern Colombia will support gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia beginning on Sun night and continuing through the middle of week. Seas are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N30W to 01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-06N between 18W-31W, and from 00N-03N W of 49W the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf region anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure located over northern Alabama. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf, and mainly moderate E-SE winds over the remainder of the basin. Seas are generally in the 3-5 ft range, except in the SE Gulf where seas of 6-8 ft are observed, highest in the Yucatan Channel. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are mainly W of 87W and over the SE Gulf under a NE wind flow. Low-level clouds, with possible patches of light rain are seen across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre in Mexico and over the western Gulf. As for the forecast: High pressure currently over Alabama will shift into the Carolinas through late Mon in the wake of a cold front now located across the northwest Caribbean. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf early Mon morning, and move across the basin through late Tue. Looking ahead, a third front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico, Mexico Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras at 16N86W. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the front. Latest ASCAT data revealed fresh northerly winds in the wake of the front, particularly just E of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. The front is forecast to dissipate today. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea, building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds east of 80W through today, and across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba tonight into Mon. This pattern will also support overnight pulses to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight through mid week. As a result, a Gale Warning has been issued. Satellite-derived wind data also show fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere E of the aforementioned frontal boundary. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will continue to move westward across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. An area of low level clouds with possible light showers is now affecting the Lesser Antilles, but mainly S of Guadeloupe. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N65W southwestward to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scatterometer data show the wind shift associated with the front, and mainly fresh northerly winds behind it. An area of fresh to strong NE winds is noted just behind the front between Andros Island in the Bahamas, SE Florida and the Florida Keys, resulting in windy and hazardous marine conditions this Sun. Fresh SW winds are also noted ahead of the front but mainly N of 30N. Another cold front crosses the Canary Islands with fresh to strong winds on either side of the front N of 27N. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1024 mb high pressure located near 26N43W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed per scatterometer passes around the southern periphery of this system between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. As with the forecast regarding the western Atlantic cold front: It will move SE across the open Atlantic through today, and begin to stall and weaken along roughly 23N across the central Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through Mon morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to near-gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N early Tue and Tue night. $$ GR