000 AXNT20 KNHC 200004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W to 02N39W and to 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection in clusters are occurring from 00N-07N between 13W-23W, also within 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-30W, within 240 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-39W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 04N44W and west of the ITCZ within 30 nm of line from 01N46W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Sarasota, Florida southwestward to inland the eastern section of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W and to far northeastern Guatemala near 17N89W. NWS Doppler Radar and GOES-16 satellite imagery show a narrow line of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. The line is moving northeastward. Ahead of the front, small bands of scattered showers and thunderstorms, also moving to the northeast, are seen over the far southern Gulf waters extending northeastward to the interior of southwest Florida. Behind the front, scattered showers are moving quickly northeastward east of 86W. Latest GOES-16 visible imagery depicts broken to overcast cold-air stratocumulus type clouds covering just about the entire basin southeast of a line from Apalachee Bay to 28N90W to 28N96W. These clouds denote the cold air advection that is taking place in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Patches of rain are possible south of 23N and west of 91W. Isolated light showers are possible elsewhere south of 26N and west of 86W. Both afternoon ASCAT data and recent buoy reports show strong northerly winds south of 26N. Latest buoy observations reveal waveheights of 10-14 ft south of 26N and west of 87W. Wave heights of 8-11 ft are present south of 26N and east of 87W as were seen in an altimeter pass from this afternoon. Wave heights north of 26N are in the 6-8 ft range, except for lower wave heights of 4-6 ft west of 94W. As for the forecast, the cold front will exit the southeastern Gulf tonight. The cold air mass behind the front will continue to support strong northerly winds behind the front and south of 26N through midnight. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region through Sun. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf early Mon morning, and move across the rest of the Gulf through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean. Wave heights there are in the 6-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are north of Honduras, with moderate southeast winds and 3-5 ft wave heights elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. No significant convection is observed across the basin other than a few fast-moving trade wind showers across the sea east of 70W and to the north of 14N west of 70W. As for the forecast, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel and into the northwestern Caribbean tonight, then become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sat night and dissipate Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast winds east of 80W late Sun night, and overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 21Z, a cold front extends from near 32N78W to inland Florida near Ormond Beach. Both satellite imagery and NWS Doppler radar show an intensifying line of numerous thunderstorms along and within 30 nm east of the front north of 28N. Frequent lightning is being observed with this activity as it races eastward. This activity is also capable of producing strong gusty winds to near gale force. Large areas of rain with embedded scattered showers, some possibly heavy, are moving quickly northeastward behind the front as atmospheric instability from an upper-level trough that is lagging behind is helping to sustain this activity. Latest ASCAT data shows fresh to strong southerly winds over the waters southeast of the front northwest of a line from 32N74W to 27N80W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 6-9 ft range. High pressure ridging extends from a 1026 mb high near 29N56W west-southwest to the central Bahamas near 25N76W. Another ridge extends from this high center east- southeast to near 25N34W. Gentle winds are near the ridge axis, except for moderate winds in the Bahamas. Fresh to strong trade winds are from 07N-24N between 46W-70W, with wave heights in the 6-9 ft range. Over the eastern Atlantic, a cold front enters the area north of the ridge through near 32N26W to near 28N37W. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are present from 29N-32N between 20W-38W. Northerly swell is propagating into the waters north of 27N, east of 45W, with seas in the 9-13 ft range. As for the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front will will reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba by Sat afternoon, then begin to move slowly SE and weaken across central Cuba to the central Bahamas to the central Atlantic through late Mon. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon morning. The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue night and begin to weaken some over the central Atlantic Wed and Wed night. $$ Aguirre