000 AXNT20 KNHC 182301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The combination of a strong cold front over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and high pressure building southward over the central U.S. is resulting in strong northerly winds over the western Gulf of Mexico. These winds are expected to reach gale force in the Veracruz region tonight and continue into Friday as the high builds over Texas and northern Mexico. Seas are forecast to build up to 16 ft. in some locations over the southwestern Gulf tonight and Fri. before subsiding over the weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N11W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 01N37W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N between 44W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for more details. A strong cold front continues to move slowly southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, and it currently extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Behind the front, strong northerly flow, colder air, and widespread cloudiness exists. Ahead of the front, light to moderate southerly flow and generally fair weather is common, with the exception being very near the front over the far northeastern waters where a line of showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will induce gale force northerly winds near Tampico, and in the Veracruz region tonight into Fri. Gales are also expected in the Bay of Campeche on Fri, with seas building to 14-16 ft. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight, from Ft. Myers, Florida to NE Yucatan peninsula on Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across the Gulf Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea, with only the typical patches of low-level clouds and showers moving westward within the trade wind flow. The low-level moisture seems to be most concentrated a couple of hundred miles to the south of Hispaniola. Surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted over the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades are occurring over the eastern Caribbean. Increasing southeasterly winds are expected over the NW Caribbean ahead of the front that is currently over the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach the NW Caribbean by Fri evening, and extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh to strong north winds will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weather conditions across much of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic Ocean are fairly tranquil at the moment. Surface ridging, supported by a 1026 mb high near 30N60W and a 1023 mb high near 28N29W, and dry air in the mid- and upper-levels are providing a limited amount of concentrated showers or thunderstorms. There is a surface trough between the two highs over the central Atlantic, but no active weather appears to be occurring along the boundary. Winds are generally light in the subtropics, closer to the surface highs, and moderate over the tropics where the pressure gradient is tighter between the ridge and the ITCZ. Fresh to strong southerly winds are developing east of Florida ahead of a cold front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N79W to central Florida on Fri, from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas into western Cuba Fri night, from 31N67W to central Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba on Sun. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. High pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon. $$ Cangialosi