965 AXNT20 KNHC 181038 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1009 mb low pressure system is centered near Pensacola Florida. A cold front extends from the low center to the coast of Mexico near Veracruz, Mexico. A warm front is across northern Florida. The cold front will move eastward today. Strong high pressure associated with reinforcing cold air will tighten the pressure gradient west of the front later today. Strong northerly winds will reach gale force in the Veracruz region of the SW Gulf tonight and Fri. Seas will build to 10-16 ft in the area of highest winds. Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea and an area of low pressure in northern Colombia is expected to support minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia this morning. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft with the strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N11W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N34W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the axis from 00N-03N between 09W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Altimeter data and buoy observations are showing mainly fresh northerly winds west of the front, with fresh to strong north winds in the waters near Galveston Texas. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range on either side of the frontal boundary. Widespread stratocumulus clouds blanket the waters west of the front, and a line of moderate to strong convection has developed north of 26N ahead of the front in the north-central Gulf. This line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist through tonight as the front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move across the remainder of the basin through Friday. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected behind the front through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected across the Gulf Sunday and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect this morning near the northern coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Altimeter passes early this morning were outside the area of expected gale force winds. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded within the low level wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated passing trade wind showers. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will move across western Caribbean Friday and Saturday, then stall and weaken Saturday night. Strong north winds will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak warm front snakes across northern Florida from a 1017 mb low north of the area at 32N79W to Daytona Beach to Tallahassee to a 1009 mb low near Pensacola. Altimeter data shows a large area of fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic waters, and buoy observations indicate winds are increasing north of the Bahamas, and veering to the south. Broad anticyclonic wind flow associated with a 1027 mb high centered near 29N63W prevails across the west-central Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted south of 23N between 50W and 68W. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of Florida later today through Friday as a cold front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N79W to central Florida on Friday, from 31N67W across the Bahamas to northern Cuba on Saturday, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba Sunday. Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front as it moves east of Florida. High pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong winds NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sunday through Monday. $$ Mundell