000 AXNT20 KNHC 170555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 04N20W, and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W, to 01N32W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong is from 06N southward from 14W eastward, and from 08N southward between 14W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the southeastern part of Florida, to the Gulf of Mexico that is about 60 nm to the NE of the NW corner of Cuba. The front becomes stationary off the coast of NW Cuba, it continues to the Yucatan Peninsula, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and eventually northwestward, beyond the Texas Big Bend. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec northeastward. A north-to-south surface trough is in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico, along 95W/96W, from 21N to the Texas coast near 29N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the trough. The current slowly-moving cold front, from southwestern Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula, will stall and weaken in the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The front will move northward as a warm front through Wednesday night. A developing low pressure system in the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night will trail a cold front across the basin through Friday. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, behind the front, through Friday evening. Fresh E to SE winds are expected this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge. The GFS model for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, for the same area, shows broad cyclonic wind flow, with a central Caribbean Sea trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 83W eastward, and in the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thursday. The wind speeds off Colombia will pulse to near gale-force tonight and on Wednesday night, then possibly again on Sunday night. SE winds increase in the Gulf of Honduras on Wednesday night, as a strong cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The cold front will move across the western Caribbean Sea on Friday and on Saturday, then stall and weaken on Saturday night. Strong north winds will follow the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N76W, beyond the southernmost parts of Florida, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 120 nm to the east of the cold front from the Straits of Florida to 30N, and from 30N n northward between 67W and the cold front. A stationary front extends from 31N30W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 32N36W, and continuing beyond 32N40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 23N northward from 40W eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 29N58W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 40W and the 32N76W-to-SE Florida cold front. The current cold front, from 31N76W to Palm Beach Florida, will stall tonight, then move northward as a warm front on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop to the east of Florida on Thursday, as the next cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will extend from 31N77W to Fort Pierce Florida on Friday, and from 31N64W across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Saturday, then stall and weaken on Sunday. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front as it moves to the east of Florida, and in the western Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights will build to around 12 feet to the east of the Bahamas, on Sunday and Sunday night. $$ mt/dm