000 AXNT20 KNHC 160553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will tighten tonight allowing for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after sunrise Tue, then will pulse again Tue evening until around sunrise Wed, with similar conditions possible Wed evening into early Thu. Seas will build to around 11-12 ft with these winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further Details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends into the eastern Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 140 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W to the coast of Brazil GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC: An Arctic cold front stretches from 1008 mb low pressure centered over the SE U.S. The front extends from the Apalachee Bay, FL to the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W. The gale-force winds previously associated with this front have subsided. Strong NW winds are now in the wake of the front, transitioning to fresh to strong NW-N winds, west of 90W. A squall line with intense thunderstorms is noted north of 24N within about 50 nm ahead of the cold front. Additional convection is over the northwest Caribbean Sea and is propagating northward across western Cuba toward the Florida Keys. Seas in the western Gulf are analyzed to be 6-12 ft, reaching heights of 13 ft in the far southwestern Gulf. A very tight gradient between strong high pressure building southward over the western Gulf and the cold front associated to the low pressure is resulting in strong northerly winds over most of the basin. Winds will diminish through Tue as the cold front begins to weaken as it reaches the far southeastern Gulf Tue. Another low pressure system will track east-northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed and Wed night dragging a strong cold front across the western Gulf. This front is expected to reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu, and exit the Gulf on Fri. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front off Veracruz on Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are possible ahead of this front. Fresh to strong winds northeast winds will be over the southeastern Gulf Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong trade winds across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with moderate to fresh ESE flow in the western portion of the basin. Higher pressure to the north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to prevail. The exception is in the NW Caribbean where scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across Cuba towards the Florida Straits and are along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in the central and eastern Caribbean are 4-8 ft with 3-5 ft seas in the western part of the basin. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force at night through mid-week. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move across western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel, and the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Fri and over the northwestern Caribbean through Sat then becomes stationary on Sat night. It will be followed by strong northerly winds. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside Thu night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The warm front previously in the western Atlantic has lifted north of the area. Radar depicts a line of thunderstorms stretching from Palm Coast, FL to 32N79W and continues north of our area, ahead of the boundary in the Gulf. Winds in this region north of the Bahamas and west of 77W may be fresh to strong preceding the arrival of the boundary that is quickly progressing eastward from the Gulf to the Western Atlantic. Elsewhere, a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 29N61W is keeping fair weather conditions in place. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow around the high across the waters west of 65W, except fresh to locally strong south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-8 ft west of 55W and 8-12 ft to the east. High pressure over the region will support fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move east of Florida on Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front Wed and dissipate Wed night Winds will increase over the western waters, including the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola beginning on Thu as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move east of Florida early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba late on Fri, and from near 28N65W to near Windward Passage Sat and Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front. $$ Mora