000 AXNT20 KNHC 151728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds have been occurring this morning and early afternoon to the west of a 1008 mb low pressure offshore southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, and behind a cold front offshore of lower Texas and northeast Mexico, including offshore of Tampico. Pilots Station East at Southwest Pass, Louisiana (28.9N 89.4W) measured winds of 53 kt gusting to 62 kt at an elevation of 20m (67 ft) above sea-level at 1524 UTC. An oil platform KMIS, located just E of the Mouth of the Mississippi River near 29.3N 88.8W, recently measured sustained winds of 46 kt and a gust of 55 kt at an elevation of 85m (279 ft) above sea level at 1635 UTC. A late-morning partial ASCAT pass shows near-gale winds covering most of the western Gulf, with some areas of gale force off Tampico. Seas up to 17 ft are currently occurring offshore of Tampico, and these seas will persist through the afternoon hours. NOAA buoy 42055 at 22.1N 93.9W recently measured significant wave heights of 16 ft at 1650 UTC and NNW winds of 29 kt gusting to 37 kt. Winds will diminish below gale force by late afternoon or early evening today. Seas will subside in the western Gulf by early Tue. Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient is developing over the south-central Caribbean that will persist through at least mid-week. With this, gale force winds are expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia tonight through Wed night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean off the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-07N between 07W-21W, from 01N-04N between 25W-36W, and from 02S-02N between 39W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low is to the south of southeastern Louisiana. A cold front extends from the low to Veracruz Mexico. Gale force winds are currently occurring west of the low and cold front. See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A weak 1013 mb low is located just offshore Tampa and the Florida Big Bend. An east-west oriented front connects the two low pressures in the Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen north of 26.5N between Pensacola and southeast Louisiana. Additional isolated showers and storms are seen south of the 1013 mb low, to the west of Tampa. Freezing rain and light snow have recently been reported along the coast of Louisiana at Baton Rouge and Patterson. For the forecast, any snow/frozen precipitation that is occurring over the Gulf of Mexico or along the coast of Louisiana or Mississippi should end by early afternoon today. The gale force winds over the Gulf of Mexico will diminish by late afternoon as the 1008 mb low lifts north of the area, with the trailing cold front extending from the western Florida panhandle to 25N89W to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front will weaken as it reaches the far southeastern Gulf Tue, where it is expected to become stationary, before lifting back north as a warm front Tue night and Wed. Another low pressure system will track E-NE across the NW Gulf on Wed and Wed night dragging a strong cold front across the western Gulf. This cold front is expected to reach from Apalachicola Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu, and exit the Gulf Fri. Gale conditions are possible behind this front off Veracruz on Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are possible ahead of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds are forecast to occur at night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight through Wed night. See the Special Features section for details. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen on satellite imagery to the west of Jamaica, near the Cayman Islands, and extending to the south coast of western Cuba. Elsewhere, only typical isolated trade wind showers are seen due to relatively dry air. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with moderate to locally fresh winds in the western portion of the basin. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft in the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force at night through Wed. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move through the NW Caribbean Fri followed by strong northerly winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen between 60-120 nm to the SE of the cold front, mainly N of 27.5N and E of 79.5W. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds prevailing over most of the west Atlantic, except for fresh to locally strong winds to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A pair of 1026 mb highs are located near 29N61W and 28N55W, respectively. Farther E, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N24W to 26N41W. Scattered moderate showers are seen along and N of the front. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the tropical Atlantic from 03N-22N between 35W-61W. Gentle winds are generally from 24N-31N, where the subtropical ridge is. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through Thu before subsiding Thu night through Fri night. Currently, seas are 9 to 11 ft from the Tropical N Atlantic waters northward into the east-central Atlantic. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move east of Florida on Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach Florida, then lift northward Wed and dissipate Wed night. Scattered tstorms, some possibly strong with gusty winds along a squall line, are expected ahead of the front tonight. Winds will increase over the western Atlantic, including the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, beginning on Thu as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move east of Florida early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front. $$ Hagen